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Old 12-06-2020, 03:12 PM
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Smile Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signaling Downside Correction


AUD/USD gained momentum above the 0.7400 level before it faced sellers near 0.7445. NZD/USD is also correcting gains and it could test the 0.7020 support.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD
  • The Aussie Dollar followed a bullish path above the 0.7350 and 0.7400 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 0.7385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • NZD/USD surged above 0.6950 and 0.7000, and even traded close to 0.7120.
  • A major ascending channel is forming with support near 0.7055 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Aussie Dollar saw a steady increase above the 0.7320 pivot against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair even broke the 0.7400 resistance level to move into a positive zone.

During the increase, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 0.7385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The upward move gained pace above 0.7400 and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.


It traded to a new monthly high at 0.7449 and recently started a downside correction. There was a break below the 0.7430 level. It is testing a key support zone near 0.7425, and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7351 swing low to 0.7449 high.

If there are more losses and a downside break below 0.7425, the pair could extend losses towards the 0.7400 support. The 50 hourly simple moving average is also near the 0.7405 level to act as a support.

Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 0.7351 swing low to 0.7449 high is at 0.7400. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 0.7350 support. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase above the 0.7440 level.

The first major resistance is near the 0.7450 level, above which AUD/USD could accelerate higher towards the 0.7500 level.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, there was a major increase in the New Zealand Dollar above the 0.6950 resistance level against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair even surged above the 0.7000 resistance zone.

The pair climbed above the 0.7050 level and spiked above the 0.7100 level. A high is formed near 0.7104 and it is currently correcting lower. There was a break below the 0.7080 support level, and the pair broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7031 swing low to 0.7104 high.

The pair is now trading below the 0.7070 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is testing the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7031 swing low to 0.7104 high.


There is also a major ascending channel is forming with support near 0.7055 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. If there is a downside break below the channel support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7040 and 0.7020 support levels.

Conversely, the pair could stay above the channel support and start a fresh increase above 0.7065. The first major resistance is near the 0.7080 level, above which the pair could make another attempt to settle above the 0.7100 level.

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication.
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Old 12-07-2020, 09:31 AM
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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Remains Supported


GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.3400 resistance zone. GBP/JPY traded as high as 140.70 before starting a major downside correction.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY
  • The British Pound climbed higher towards the 1.3540 level before correcting lower.
  • There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near 1.3430 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • GBP/JPY traded close to the 141.80 resistance level before starting a downside correction.
  • There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 139.70 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound saw a decent increase above the 1.3400 resistance area against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3480 resistance to move further into a positive zone.

Finally, there was a break above the 1.3500 level and the pair traded as high as 1.3539 on FXOpen. Recently, the pair started a downside correction and traded below the 1.3500 level. There was a break below the 1.3480 and 1.3450 support levels.


There was also a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near 1.3430 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair traded close to the 1.3400 level and it is currently correcting higher.

It is facing resistance near the broken trend line, 1.3440, and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3539 high to 1.3408 low is also near the 1.3440 area.

If there is an upside break above the 1.3440 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, the pair could start a fresh increase. The next major resistance is near the 1.3475 level.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3539 high to 1.3408 low is also near the 1.3473 level. Any more upsides could lead the pair above 1.3500. Conversely, the pair could decline further below 1.3408.

The next major support is near the 1.3400 and 1.3385 levels. A close below the 1.3385 level might call for a larger decline towards the 1.3320 level in the near term.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

The British Pound also climbed higher above the 140.00 resistance against the Japanese Yen. The GBP/JPY pair even climbed above the 140.50 level, but it failed to continue higher above 140.75.

A swing high was formed near 140.70 before the pair started a downside correction. There was a steady decline below the 140.50 and 140.20 levels. The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 139.47 swing low to 140.70 high.


There was also a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 139.70 on the hourly chart. The pair is now trading below the 139.80 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It is now approaching the 139.47 swing low. The next major support is near the 139.20 level. It is close to the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 139.47 swing low to 140.70 high. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 139.00 support zone.

On the upside, the recent breakdown zone near the 140.00 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average might act as a hurdle. The next major resistance is near the 140.25 level, above which the pair could revisit the 140.70 high.

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Old 12-08-2020, 04:31 AM
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All Eyes on Euro and the ECB This Week


Following the weak NFP report in the United States last Friday, the market moves to the key event of the week ahead the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. The central bank already pre-committed to act in December, and most of the impact may already be priced in the market. However, it can still surprise the market, especially if we consider the strong Euro across the board.


Strong Euro Remains a Headache for the ECB

The EURUSD exchange rate reached 1.2175 ahead of the NFP report last Friday. By the time that it first reached 1.20 in the summer, the ECB verbally intervened, suggesting that the exchange rate level is too high. From that moment on, the EURUSD consolidated below 1.20, but the level eventually gave way.

At this point, the Euro rallies across the FX dashboard. Not only the EURUSD rate is higher, but the EURJPY or EURGBP too. This makes this weeks ECB decision even more interesting, as if it is to surprise markets, it may do so by delivering an ultra-dovish statement.

What Will the ECB Do?

The ECB already hinted that it would not lower the interest rate on the deposit facility more into the negative territory. It also vowed to ease more the financial conditions since most European economies are in some kind of lockdown mode.

While the decisions may already be priced in, the ECB may still surprise markets. One way of doing so is to extend the duration of policy support much more into the future than the market expects.

The ECB might also extend the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by June 2022. While the extension is expected by the market participants, the focus will be on the actual size of the package the higher the number, the stronger the impact on the Euro.

Finally, the ECB will likely use this press conference to deliver its concerns about the high exchange rate. If the central bank manages to surprise the markets, then the EURUSD should ease to 1.20 and below. On the other hand, any statement interpreted as less dovish should trigger a further rally in the EURUSD, especially considering that next week the Fed in the United States is expected to ease the policy too.

All in all, expect a lot of volatility on the Euro pairs this week, considering the ECB and the ongoing Brexit negotiations. Finally, the end of the year flows should have an impact on the exchange rate too.


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Old 12-08-2020, 02:23 PM
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BTC and XRP Consolidation Seen But A Breakout Likely Started


BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways since the 1st of December when it reached a new all-time high, spiking above the $19,677 level. Since then we have seen the formation of a descending triangle with the price now going back to its support level and has been testing it for support once again. Currently, it is being traded at around $18,819.


On the hourly chart, you can see that the price is finding support on the current interaction and has closed the hourly candle above it with now forming a green one. This could be an early indication that the price found support there and is now going to make a bounce. The triangle we have seen form could be the consolidative 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse to the upside that started on the 26th of November. In that case, after this sideways movement ends and it could have ended now on another support validation we are to see a breakout to the upside and an uptrend continuation. The price has already attempted a breakout but has been rejected slightly above the $19,380 level which is why we have seen a decrease. But if this a consolidation below the all-time high a breakout above the upper horizontal level would be seen for another higher high at around $21,230 area.

XRP/USD

From the 1st of December, the price of Ripple has decreased by around 20%, measured to its lowest point on the 5th, when it came down to $0.543 but started increasing from there again and came up to $0.625 on yesterdays open. Now it is being traded slightly lower as another decrease was made but the price has made a higher low and a breakout from the higher degree symmetrical triangle on its upper side.


As you can see by looking at the hourly chart, the price made a breakout and a pullback to the support level of the symmetrical triangle where is now testing it for support. Like in the case of Bitcoin we could be seeing an early indication that the support is present at those levels as the hourly candle managed to close above it and now a green candle has started forming. If this was the 2nd wave out of the next five-wave impulse after the WXY correction, then the price is now headed towards a higher high compared to the one made on the 24th of November.

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Old 12-08-2020, 07:51 PM
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Old 12-09-2020, 05:28 AM
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EUR/USD Is Showing Bullish Signs, USD/JPY Could Resume Decline


EUR/USD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2000 and 1.2080 resistance levels. USD/JPY is currently recovering, but it might decline again if it fails to clear 104.30.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY
  • The Euro started a strong upward move above the 1.2000 and 1.2100 levels.
  • There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/JPY is correcting higher and trading above the 104.00 support level.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 104.10 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro started a strong upward move above the 1.2000 resistance against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke many hurdles near 1.2050 and 1.2080 to move into a positive zone.

The pair even broke the 1.2150 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.2177 on FXOpen before starting a downside correction. There was a break below the 1.2100 level, but the pair remained well bid near the 1.2080 zone.


The recent low was formed near 1.2095 and the pair is currently rising. There was a break above the 1.2110 resistance levels. The pair also climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2166 high to 1.2095 low.

There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is currently attempting upside above 1.2120.

The next key resistance is near the 1.2130 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2166 high to 1.2095 low. A clear break above 1.2125 and 1.2130 could open the doors for more gains. The next major resistance is near the 1.2170 and 1.2180 levels.

Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline below the 1.2100 support. The main support is near the 1.2080 zone, below which the EUR/USD pair could slide towards the 1.2025 and 1.2000 support levels in the near term.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar faced a strong resistance near the 104.30 and it started a fresh decline against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair broke the 104.00 support level, but dips were limited.

A low was formed near 103.92 and the pair started a decent recovery wave. There was a break above the 104.05 and 104.10 levels. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 104.31 high to 103.92 low.


The pair is now trading above the 104.10 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. An initial resistance is near the 104.16 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 104.31 high to 103.92 low.

The first major resistance is near the 104.30 level. A clear break above the 104.30 zone is needed to start a steady rise towards the 104.55 and 104.80 levels.

On the downside, the 104.00 level is a strong support. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 104.10 on the hourly chart. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the pair could dive towards the 103.80 level.

Any further losses may lead the USD/JPY pair towards the 103.50 support zone. The next major support is near the 103.00 level.

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Old 12-10-2020, 03:41 PM
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LTC and EOS Descending Channel Ending Soon


LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been decreasing since the start of the month when it came up to $93. Measured to its lowest point of the month made yesterday at $74.45 we have seen a decrease of 20%. The price is currently being traded around the levels of yesterdays low, but it appears that it found support there and is now looking to start increasing again.


On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Litecoin formed a descending channel from the start of the month with yesterdays low being a retest of its support level. Now as the price has managed to stay on the same levels as on its lowest yesterday and didnt make a lower one, before finding some support we could be seeing the start of the upside move that is to propel the price at least to the channels resistance level.

On Tuesday we have seen a breakout below the significant $78.442 horizontal support level, today the price tested it for resistance and found it, which is why we have seen another descending move. This is why we could still see lower lows before the ending of the descending channel formation in which case the price would most likely go to the 1.618 Fib level.

EOS/USD

Since the start of the month, the price of EOS has decreased by 18.8%, coming from its high at $3.334 on December 1st to $2.70 on its yesterdays low. Currently, the price is being traded at $2.7567 and is moving slowly to the downside.


Looking at the hourly chart, we can see a similar pattern like in the case of Litecoin as a descending channel was formed. Inside the channel, we have seen a five-wave structure developing which could be a lower degree ABCDE or an impulse five-wave but like an ending diagonal.

Since the structure appears near completion the current descending move could be the 2nd wave out of the next five-wave move to the upside that is set to push the price for a breakout to the upside. If that is the case then the price cant go below the level of yesterdays low, which is why the $2.71 area serves as a pivot point.

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Old 12-11-2020, 03:54 AM
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Gold Price Showing Bearish Signs While Oil Price Outperforms

Gold price failed to surpass the $1,875 resistance and started a fresh decline. Conversely, crude oil price traded to new multi-month high close to $48.00 level.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil
  • Gold price started a fresh decline below the $1,870 and $1,850 levels against the US Dollar.
  • There is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,840 on the hourly chart of gold.
  • Crude oil price surged above the $46.75 resistance and traded as high as $47.82.
  • There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near $46.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,800 support zone against the US Dollar. The price broke the $1,840 and $1,850 resistance levels to gain bullish momentum.

However, the price struggled to clear the $1,875 resistance. A high was formed near $1,875 on FXOpen and the price started a fresh decline. There was a clear break below the $1,855 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.


The price even broke the $1,840 level and traded close to $1,825. The price is currently consolidating above $1,825. The recent swing high was near $1,849 before the price declined to $1,829.

It is currently trading above the $1,832 level. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,849 swing high to $1,829 low. On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $1,840 level.

Moreover, there is a major contracting triangle forming with resistance near $1,840 on the hourly chart of gold. The triangle resistance is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,849 swing high to $1,829 low.

A successful close above the triangle resistance, $1,840, and the 50 hourly simple moving average could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions. The next major resistance is near the $1,850 level.

Conversely, the price could continue to move down below the $1,830 and $1,828 levels. The next major support is near $1,810, below which there is a risk of a sharp decline towards $1,780. Any further losses could lead the price towards the $1,750 support zone.

Oil Price Technical Analysis

Crude oil price remained well bid above the $44.00 and $45.00 levels against the US Dollar. The price broke many hurdles near $45.50 to move further into a positive zone.

The bulls remained in action and there was a clear break above the $46.75 resistance. During the rise, there was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near $46.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.


The price even broke the $47.20 resistance and settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded close to the $47.85 level and a high is formed near $47.82.

Recently, there was a downside correction below the $47.50 level. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $45.06 swing low to $47.82 high.

On the downside, the previous resistance near $46.75 is acting as a strong support. The next major support is near the $46.50 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $45.06 swing low to $47.82 high.

On the upside, the price is facing hurdles near the $47.25 level. A close above $47.25 might set the pace for a fresh leg higher towards the $48.00 level.

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Old 12-14-2020, 06:05 AM
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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: Upsides Could Be Capped in British Pound


GBP/USD opened with a gap up above the 1.3250 level. EUR/GBP declined below the 0.9145 support, but it could find a strong support near 0.9080.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP
  • The British Pound opened with a gap higher and trading above the 1.3300 level.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3395 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • EUR/GBP opened with a gap lower and traded below the key 0.9145 support zone.
  • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.9135 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.3480 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3280 support level and even spiked below the 1.3150 support.

The pair traded as low as 1.3134 on FXOpen before starting an upside correction. There was a clear break above the 1.3180 and 1.3200 resistance levels. More importantly, the pair opened with a gap higher and trading above the 1.3300 level.


There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3477 high to 1.3134 low. It is now trading well above the 1.3300 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.3345 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3477 high to 1.3134 low. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3395 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

As long as the pair is below the trend line resistance, there is a risk of a fresh decline. In the stated case, the pair could attempt to fill the open gap and test the 1.3250 support zone in the near term.

Conversely, the pair could continue to move higher above the 1.3345 and 1.3400 resistance levels. The next major resistance for the bulls could ne 1.3480 in the near term.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The Euro remained in a positive zone and climbed above the 0.9150 level this past week against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair even surpassed the 0.9200 resistance level.

It traded as high as 0.9229 before starting a downside correction. It broke the 0.9200 and 0.9180 support levels. More importantly, the pair opened with a gap lower and traded below the key 0.9145 support zone, plus the 50 hourly simple moving average.


There was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8984 swing low to 0.9229 high. There was also a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.9135 on the hourly chart.

The pair tested the main 0.9080 support zone, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8984 swing low to 0.9229 high.

It is currently correcting higher, but the 0.9120 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average are acting as hurdles for the bulls. If it clears the 0.9120 zone, the bulls could attempt close to the gap in the coming sessions.

Conversely, the pair could continue to move down. The first major support on the downside is at 0.9080, below which EUR/GBP might revisit the 0.9000 zone.

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Old 12-14-2020, 02:09 PM
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ECB Disappointed Markets Why?


Last weeks main event, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, disappointed the market. The central bank pre-committed to ease the financial conditions already from October, but the markets remained with the feeling that the ECB did not do enough.

Yes, the central bank further eased the policy it extended the Quantitative Easing (QE) program and offered better terms on its TLTROs. However, it was less than the market expected. Moreover, the market pushed the EURUSD exchange rate above the 1.20 level a week before the ECB, and the central bank did not give any clue that it is bothered by the move.


What Was Priced In?

The market expected the PEPP program, which basically is the QE program during the pandemic, to be extended by June 2022. Instead, the ECB extended it only by March 2022. The three months between the two dates when the ECB will not buy bonds represent a tightening rather than easing. As such, the market took the message as hawkish rather than dovish.

Moreover, the new TLTRO conditions for commercial banks to get access to the funds are tougher. In other words, few commercial banks will be able to meet the ECBs terms so that they will get the funds needed. As a result, the ECB managed to deliver another hawkish message during a dovish statement.

Finally, the central bank suggested that it expects inflation to reach 1.2% in 2023, using the core approach, the one that does not consider energy prices. But that is well below the 2% threshold established by its mandate and may suggest that the ECB has a problem bringing inflation below but close to the target.

How About the EURUSD?

The EURUSD and a strong Euro represent such a problem. It is economics 101 that a stronger currency weighs on inflation. Thus, the ECB would have an easier task of reaching its inflation-targeting mandate if the Euro will not be that strong. In particular, the EURUSD is an ongoing concern for the ECB.

However, by only delivering more easing measures wrapped in hawkish statements, the ECB does nothing but fueling a stronger EUR. As such, we should not be surprised by the fact that the EURUSD rate at the 2020 highs two days after the ECB press conference ended.

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