Archive for September, 2008
September 30th, 2008 at 03:45am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 30, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The appetite for risk imploded on Monday after the House of Representatives unexpectedly rejected the $700 billion TARP and the S&P’s 500 Index tumbled the most since the 1987 crash. The price of oil collapsed amid expected lower demand, but the gold rallied. The US financial catastrophe is spreading and European governments were forced to step in to rescue Belgium’s Fortis – and others. The Congress will revisit the TARP later this week and we can only hop they will improve and then ratify it. The failure to do so could have gigantic negative repercussions at a time when the money market is broken. The dollar exploded higher versus the European and the commodity currencies on Monday and sank versus the yen, as crosses are taking the upper hand. Today is the end of the month, end of quarter and Rosh Hashanah, so trading should take a breather. But volatility could increase. The dollar/Europe is biased higher.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar sank to as low as a two-week low and my model went short. The pair is attempting to recover briefly, but the short-term outlook remains bearish.
Immediate support is at 1.4305. The next level is 1.4255. Distant support is at 1.4095.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.4450. The next levels are 1.4495 and 1.4555. Above 1.4695, resistance remains at 1.4810.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen collapsed to a three-week low and my model went short. It’s got to stay above 103.55 or risk forming a massive head-and-shoulders formation.
Good support is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. The next level is 102.50.
Immediate resistance is at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell sharply on Monday but my model went short. The downside is favored in the short term, but only a break below 1.7905 confirms this.
Initial support is at 1.7960. Below 1.7905, support is at 1.7805. This is followed by 1.7710.
Initial resistance is at 1.8070. Good resistance follows at 1.8180. Above the strong level at 1.8245, further resistance is at 1.8375.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc rallied sharply but closed flat on Monday. M y model went long. The initial bias is bullish, but not for long.
Initial resistance still comes at 1.0973. The next level is 1.1055. This is followed by 1.1185 and 1.1279.
Immediate support remains at 1.0890. Below 1.0790, support is now pegged at 1.0698.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
30-09-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary September 30
By admin
September 29th, 2008 at 09:48am
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Forex Market Commentary for September 29, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar consolidated on Friday but should advance on Monday on news that the US Congress will ratify the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The dollar is lacking much direction, but given the illiquid trading conditions and the ratification of the TARP, its bias is up. The US economic agenda will open on Monday with the release of the personal income and spending reports for August.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell to a one-week low but remained in an inside range and my model remains long. The short term outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is at 1.4486. The next level is 1.4438. Below 1.4370, support is at 1.4255.
Initial resistance is seen at 1.4600. The next level is 1.4685. Above 1.4735, resistance is still seen at 1.4810.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen is alternating up and down days. My model remains long, but the pair is in a triangle and the medium-term outlook remains mixed. It’s slightly bullish in the short term.
Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. The next level is 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Good support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. This is followed at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell early on Monday but my model remains long. The downside is favored in the short term.
My model remains long but the downside is favored first.
Initial support is at 1.8250. Below this level, strong support now comes at 1.8110. This is followed by 1.7917.
Initial resistance is at 1.8355. Good resistance follows at 1.8475 and 1.8515. Above the strong level at 1.8668, further resistance is at 1.8750.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc climbed to a one-week high, but remains stuck in an inside range and my model remains short. The initial bias is bullish.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0973. The next level is 1.1055. This is followed by 1.1185 and 1.1279.
Immediate support is at 1.0890. Below 1.0790, support is now pegged at 1.0698.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
29-09-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary September 29
By admin
September 26th, 2008 at 06:12am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 26, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
Once again, it’s about the TARP these days, and until real details become available, the dollar can only consolidate. It basically climbed on Thursday, stocks rallied some as well, but it means nothing until concrete results are in. The US data was horrible on Thursday, but that was chicken feed relative to the TARP. Today we have some GDP and confidence data – pretty irrelevant since we are already in a recession. Put your seatbelts on, as volatility might do some damage ahead of the weekend. The dollar’s bias is mixed, with potential for spikes either way; but if the plan remains in danger, the dollar should get under pressure.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar had an outside day relative to Wednesday, but remained confined to inside range for the third day. It closed little changed, but my model remains long. If you must trade, buy it first, don’t hold positions for long.
Initial resistance is at 1.4700. Above 1.4765, resistance remains at 1.4825. Then, there is a pivot high at 1.4865.
Immediate support is at 1.4610. Below 1.4585, the next level is 1.4530. This is still followed by 1.4485. Distant support is at 1.4390.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell in early trading and then surged on yen cross demand. But then fell in the Far East. As it remained stuck in an inside range, my model remains long. The downside is favored first.
Initial support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Further support is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Resistance remains at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. A pivot high looms at 108.01.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar made the expected upmove in early trading, when it nailed a near five-week high, and then succumbed on Thursday. Still, my model remains long and the initial bias is up.
Above 1.8475, the next resistance is now seen at 1.8530. The next level is 1.8670. Distant resistance is at 1.8795.
Immediate support is at 1.8370. The next levels are 1.8308 and 1.8250. Distant support is 1.8065.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc broke above Wednesday’s high, but my model remains short. The immediate bias is down…
Initial support remains 1.0825. The next level is 1.0780. Below 1.0698, distant support remains at 1.0535.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0880. The next levels are still seen at 1.0940, 1.0990 and 1.1060. Distant resistance remains at 1.1280.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
26-09-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary September 26
By admin
September 25th, 2008 at 05:34am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 25, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
While the TARP remains under debate, the dollar cannot do much more than consolidate. The risk of a sharp decline will increase if the street doesn’t see this plan materializing, especially going into the weekend. Keep an eye on the US new home sales and on the volatile durable goods orders. The dollar’s bias is lower.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar edged further down on Wednesday in choppy trading but remained in an inside range. My model remains long and the risk is on the upside.
Above 1.4765, resistance is at 1.4825. Then, there is a pivot high at 1.4865. Further resistance is now seen at 1.4910 and 1.4960.
Immediate support is seen at 1.4650. Below 1.4600, the next level is 1.4530. This is still followed by 1.4485.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen climbed on Wednesday. While it remained stuck in an inside range, my model went long. It doesn’t look like a staying upmove, and the next move should be lower.
Initial support moved to 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Further support is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Above 106.10, resistance is now at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Just like the euro/dollar, sterling/dollar slipped further on profit taking after surging on Monday. It remains in an inside range and my model remains long. The upside remains favored in the short term, but once again, only a break above 1.8639 would get the market excited now.
Above this level, the next resistance is now seen at 1.8722. Above 1.8800, distant resistance remains at 1.9115.
Immediate support is at 1.8520. The next levels are 1.8405 and 1.8355. Distant support is 1.8250.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc bounced further on Wednesday on profit taking, but my model remains short. The initial bias is bearish, and only a break below 1.0825 will now suggest further weakness.
Initial support is 1.0825. The next level is 1.0780. Below 1.0698, distant support remains at 1.0535.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0935. The next levels are 1.0990 and 1.1060. Distant resistance remains at 1.1280.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
25-09-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary September 25
By admin
September 24th, 2008 at 06:22am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 24, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar made a mild recovery versus the European and the antipodean currencies on Tuesday, along with a pullback in oil and gold, but this was only profit taking following an exceptionally volatile day on Monday. However, the bottom line is that the Treasury’s plan to remove banks’ toxic mortgage assets doesn’t look good and this increases the risk of a dollar decline going into the weekend. Keep an eye on Germany’s IFO reports, and to a lesser extent to the US existing homes sales. Following some early strength, the dollar should attempt to decline.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell on Tuesday on minor profit taking and gave back nearly half of its monster gains made a day earlier. My model remains long and the risk is on the upside.
Initial resistance is at 1.4700. Above 1.4765, there is a pivot high at 1.4865. Further resistance is now seen at 1.4910 and 1.4960.
Immediate support is at 1.4600. The next level is 1.4530. This is still followed by 1.4485.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen consolidated on Tuesday in a tight range and closed virtually unchanged. It lacks much direction, but my model is short.
Initial support remains at 105.10. The next level is 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Distant support is 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Further resistance looms at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar slipped on profit taking after surging a day earlier, and my model remains long. The upside remains favored in the short term, but only a break above 1.8639 would get the market excited now.
Initial resistance is at 1.8550. The next levels are 1.8600 and 1.8639. Above these levels, the next resistance is now seen at 1.8722. Above 1.8800, distant resistance remains at 1.9115.
Immediate support remains at 1.8475. The next level is 1.8355. Below 1.8250, distant support remains at 1.8110.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc bounced slightly to recover nearly half of Monday’s sharp losses, but my model remains short. The initial bias remains bearish, but only a break below 1.0698 will suggest further weakness.
Initial support is at 1.0825. The next level is 1.0780. Below 1.0698, support remains at 1.0535. This is followed by 1.0380.
Initial resistance is at 1.0920. The next levels are 1.0983 and 1.1060. Distant resistance is at 1.1280.
Oscillators are bearish.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
24-09-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary September 24
By admin
September 23rd, 2008 at 07:17am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 23, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar collapsed on Monday, reflecting extreme gains in oil and gold, amid unclear details about the Treasury’s plans to save banks by removing their debilitating mortgage assets and fears that a recession in the US is finally inevitable. And news that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have turned overnight from big investment banks to regulated banks undermined the US currency as it made it clear how close we came to a financial meltdown. Again, the market remains illiquid and directions may change very quickly. The dollar should slow down its decline today and there is a chance that it may even advance against the yen. Keep an eye on Fed’s Bernanke.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar surged on Monday and my model remains long. More strength is likely, but at a reduced pace.
Initial resistance is at 1.4960. Above 1.5020, resistance is now seen at 1.5215.
Immediate support is at 1.4705. The next level is 1.4655. This is followed by 1.4485.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell on Monday to reverse all of the gains made a day earlier. Once again, the yen remains an ingredient for crosses and lacks much direction. My model remains long, but the medium-term outlook remains mixed.
Initial support is at 105.10. The next level is 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Distant support is 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
Immediate resistance is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Further resistance looms at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged further on Monday and my model remains long. The upside remains favored in the short term, but only a break above 1.8725 would warrant more strength.
Above this level, the next level comes at 1.8800. Distant resistance is at 1.9115.
Immediate support is at 1.8475. Below 1.8250, distant support remains at 1.8110.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc collapsed on Monday and my model remains short. The initial bias remains bearish, but only a break below 1.0660 signals further weakness.
Below this level, support is now pegged at 1.0535. This is followed by 1.0380.
Initial resistance moved down to 1.0820. The next levels are 1.0880 and 1.1000.
Oscillators are bearish.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
23-09-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary September 23
By admin
September 22nd, 2008 at 10:46pm
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 22, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied aggressively versus the yen and reversed gains against the European currencies on a sudden increase in the appetite for risk after Treasury Secretary Paulson urged the government to extract the toxic mortgage assets from the financial system and the Federal Reserve pledged to provide loans for purchases of high-quality asset-backed commercial paper from money market funds. Commodities surged again. There are incipient, but crucial, steps in returning to normal trading conditions in FX. On Monday, the dollar fell across the board and should now consolidate. The market remains illiquid though and fortunes will continue to change very quickly.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar reversed sharp early losses to close higher on Friday. My model is long and more strength is likely.
Above 1.4625, resistance is still seen at 1.4810.
Immediate support is at 1.4540. This is followed by 1.4375. The next level is 1.4290.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied further on Friday and fell early Monday, as the yen remains an ingredient for crosses. My model went long. The medium-term outlook is mixed.
Initial support is at 106.25. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar recovered sharp losses to close higher on Friday. My model remains long and the upside is again favored in the short term.
Above the strong level at 1.8470, distant resistance is at 1.8505.
Immediate support is at 1.835. Below 1.8235, strong support now comes at 1.8110. This is followed by 1.7917.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell sharply on Friday and again early Monday. The initial bias is bearish.
Below 1.0885, support is still pegged at 1.0844. This is followed by 1.0715.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.1040. The next levels are 1.1100 and 1.1200. These are followed by 1.1360.
Oscillators are bearish.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
September 20th, 2008 at 01:42am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 19 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The rumor that the Fed will move to shore up the entire bad mortgage positions of the banks did miracles for the stock market and dollar/yen rallied. The European currencies should weaken as well. But FX should stay in the shadow of bigger asset classes and the market should not be too liquid. Be super-careful here!
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar ended well off its lows on Thursday as expected, and my model remains barley long. It should attempt to add to its late gains today.
Initial resistance is at 1.4290. The next level to watch is 1.4400. Above 1.4482, resistance is still seen at 1.4545.
Immediate support comes at 1.4200. The next strong level remains at 1.4145. Below 1.4088, the low on Monday, support is still seen at 1.4004. A pivot low is at 1.3883.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Thursday, but my model remains short. The market will change at the drop of the hat, so what goes up today may reverse tomorrow – or in the next 10 minutes.
Initial support is now 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Below the 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00, there is a pivot low at 103.56. Distant support is at 102.40.
Immediate resistance is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar managed to recover most of its unexpected losses on Thursday. The short term is at only slightly bullish.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8100. The next level remains 1.8190. Above the strong level at 1.8280, distant resistance is still seen at 1.8470 and 1.8505.
Initial support is at 1.7960. Below the strong level at 1.7780, support remains at 1.7708.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc closed up on Thursday, but off its intraday highs. Some pressure is likely here.
Immediate support is at 1.1100. Below 1.0950, support remains pegged at 1.0885. This is followed by 1.0844. Distant support is at 1.0715.
Initial resistance still comes at 1.1200. This is followed by 1.1270 and 1.1360.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
19-09-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary September 19
By admin
September 18th, 2008 at 08:22am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 18, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar fell across the board on Wednesday, as the last minute government bailout of the key financial player AIG failed to support the equity markets. Simply put, who is next to go? Wa Mu, other top investment banks? Rumors made rounds of concerted rates by Thursday morning, and they added to the selling pressure. Commodities rallied sharply on the day, part because of the dollar weakness and part because of profit taking on oil, which had tested strong support at $90/barrel on Tuesday. The housing starts and building permits for August were weak, but the number was made more horrible by a change in code. Beside the weekly jobless report, Thursday will see the release of the leading indicators report for August and of the Philly Fed survey for September. These two reports could be interesting. The dollar should attempt to consolidate today, but the risk is on the downside.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied on Wednesday, as expected, and my model remains long. It should attempt to pad its gains today.
Initial resistance is at 1.4400. Above 1.4482, resistance is still seen at 1.4545. Above 1.4625, resistance is at 1.4810.
Immediate support comes at 1.4270. The next strong level remains at 1.4145. Below 1.4088, the low on Monday, support is still seen at 1.4004. A pivot low is at 1.3883.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen failed to recover on cross trading and fell amid general weakness. My model remains short and the bias is on the downside.
Below the 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00, there is a pivot low at 103.56. Distant support is at 102.40.
Immediate resistance is now 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Wednesday more than I expected. The short term is at least slightly bullish.
Immediate resistance is at 1.8190. Above the strong level at 1.8280, distant resistance is at 1.8470 and 1.8505.
Initial support is at 1.8035. The next level to watch is 1.7960. Below the strong level at 1.7780, support remains at 1.7708.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell aggressively during the down day expected for Thursday. More pressure is likely here.
Below 1.0950, support is pegged at 1.0885. This is followed by 1.0844. Distant support is at 1.0715.
Initial resistance comes at 1.1200. This is followed by 1.1270 and 1.1360.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
September 17th, 2008 at 06:27am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for September 17, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar edged up on Tuesday on consolidation, as expected, as all eyes were on AIG first and Wa Mu second. The AIG was saved by the government late in the day, and this excellent news for this superb vital insurance company – and for many other financial institutions and individuals. Moreover, the stocks recovered on solid earnings from Morgan Stanley. The US CPI started to slip – this is only the beginning, as oil prices have been falling since then and have more room to go. The US economic reports to focus on today are the current account balance for the second quarter and the housing starts and building permits for August. More dollar consolidation is likely today, but dollar/yen has a bid tone, while the European currencies should attempt to strengthen against the dollar.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar closed lower on Tuesday, but my model remains long. It should now attempt to recover those losses.
Initial resistance is at 1.4270. This is followed by 1.4330. Above 1.4482, the high on Monday, resistance is still seen at 1.4545. Above 1.4625, resistance is at 1.4810.
Immediate support remains at 1.4145. Below 1.4088, the low on Monday, support is now seen at 1.4004. A pivot low is at 1.3883.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen encountered the expected decline only in early trading on Tuesday and hit a near-four month low before reversing aggressively. My model remains short. The upside is now favored.
Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Below the 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00, there is a pivot low at 103.56.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell on Tuesday, as expected, but my model remains long. The short term is mixed to slightly bullish.
Immediate resistance is at 1.7960. Good resistance follows at 1.8035. The next level to keep in mind is 1.8120. Above the strong level at 1.8190, further resistance remains at 1.8280.
Below the strong level at 1.7780, support remains at 1.7708. This is followed by 1.7672. Below 1.7595, distant support is at 1.7450.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc reversed early losses to close higher on Tuesday, as expected, but my model remains short. The initial bias is mixed to slightly lower.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.1130. The next level is 1.1050. Below 1.1010, support is pegged at 1.0885. This is followed by 1.0844.
Initial resistance remains at 1.1270. This is followed by 1.1360.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
17-09-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary September 17
By admin
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