Archive for August, 2008
August 29th, 2008 at 05:16am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 29, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar made little progress versus most of the majors, but pushed further up against the pound. Trading will get very thin in the short day before the Labor Day weekend, but the US economic calendar is busy. It will feature personal income and spending reports for July, the Chicago PMI report for August, the University of Michigan survey for September, and the core PCE deflator report for July. Expect choppy trading without much direction.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar reversed early gains to close lower on Thursday, as expected. Once again, following an early recovery, the pair should resume its decline. My model is long.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4760. The next levels are 1.4780 and 1.4800. A pivotal level is in place at 1.4910.
Immediate support comes at 1.4665. The next level is 1.4572. Below 1.4540, support comes at 1.4485 and 1.4455.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen consolidated in an inside range on Thursday and closed virtually unchanged. Again. Unless the 110.00 area gives way, the pair will retest the 108.65 area. My model remains (barely) short.
Immediate resistance is still in place at 110.00. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Strong support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank further a new over two-year low on Thursday and the selling pressure should continue.
Initial support is at 1.8240. Below 1.8207, cable has support at 1.8127.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8355. This is followed by 1.8437 and 1.8565. The next strong resistance remains 1.8620.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss closed marginally higher after alternating up and down days for nine days. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but trading should remain choppy to early next week.
Initial resistance remains at 1.1025. The next levels come at 1.1054 and 1.1086. Strong resistance follows at 1.1185.
The pair still sees immediate support at 1.0955. This is followed by the area between 1.0925 and 1.0915. A pivot low remains at 1.0844, but this should not be challenged.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
By admin
August 28th, 2008 at 10:21am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 28, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The proximity of Labor Day weekend surely doesn’t make things easier in the currency markets. Nor did the half-baked measures at Fannie Mae. The dollar closed slightly lower against the euro and franc on Wednesday, but basically flat versus the pound and yen. However, trading was quite volatile. The dollar lacks much direction, so expect more choppy trading for a couple of days. Only the German unemployment rate report is of interest, as the Nationswide housing price report should be negative.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar corrected into an inside range on Wednesday after falling to a near 6 ½-month low a day earlier. Again, following an early recovery, the pair should resume its decline. My model reversed its short position. Sideways to lower trading is likely.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4780. The next good level is at 1.4800. A pivotal level is in place at 1.4910.
Immediate support comes at 1.4710. The next levels are 1.4665 and 1.4572. Below 1.4540, support comes at 1.4485 and 1.4455.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen had an outside day ahead of month end, but closed virtually unchanged on Wednesday. Unless the 110.00 area gives way, the pair will retest the 108.65 area. My model is (barely) short.
Immediate resistance is still in place at 110.00. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Strong support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank to a new over two-year low on Wednesday and the selling pressure should continue.
Initial support is at 1.8286. This is followed by 1.8245. Below 1.8207, cable has support at 1.8127.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8437. This is followed by 1.8565. The next strong resistance remains 1.8620.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss closed marginally lower after alternating up and down days for eight days. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but trading should remain choppy for a couple of days.
Initial resistance is at 1.1025. The next levels come at 1.1054 and 1.1086. Strong resistance follows at 1.1185.
The pair still sees immediate support at 1.0955. This is followed by the area between 1.0925 and 1.0915. A pivot low remains at 1.0844, but this should not be challenged.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
28-08-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary August 28
By admin
August 27th, 2008 at 10:14am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar traded higher against all the majors on Tuesday. The rally was exacerbated by stacking evidence regarding the weakening the Eurozone economy; the Ifo institute’s index of German business climate fell to 94.8 from 97.5 in July, while the sub-index of business expectations fell to 87, the lowest since February 1993. With the dollar basically alternating up and down days ahead of the long US weekend, it should edge lower first before the next upmove.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell to a near 6 ½-month low on Tuesday before trimming losses. Following an early recovery, its decline should resume. My model went short after the release of the horrible Ifo report, so I like the pair down overall.
Immediate support comes at 1.4635. The next level is 1.4572. Below 1.4540, support comes at 1.4485 and 1.4455.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4710. The next good level is at 1.4800. A pivotal level is in place at 1.4910.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen continued to alternate up and down days, but the upmove on Tuesday was not significant at the pair got stuck in an inside range.
Immediate resistance is at 110.00. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Strong support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell to an over two-year low on Tuesday and the selling pressure should persist.
This is followed by 1.8245. Below 1.8207, cable has support at 1.8127.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8443. This is followed by 1.8565. The next strong resistance remains 1.8620.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied to a six-month high on Tuesday before giving up most of its gains. My model is now long. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but trading should be choppy for a couple of days.
Initial resistances come at 1.1054 and 1.1086. Strong resistance follows at 1.1185.
The pair sees immediate support at 1.0955. This is followed by the area between 1.0925 and 1.0915. A pivot low remains at 1.0844, but this should not be challenged.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
27-08-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary August 27
By admin
August 26th, 2008 at 09:44am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 26, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar followed divergent paths on a Monday thinned by the London holiday, as euro/yen and euro/Swiss drove the market. The US currency rallied versus the commodity currencies, fell against the yen and closed little changed versus the European currencies. With the US equity markets under pressure, the dollar should make a choppy decline. Keep an eye on the German Ifo report and on the US new home sales and consumer confidence reports.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar recovered most of early losses caused by sales of euro/yen and euro/Swiss. It should attempt another recovery in the short term before the next decline. My model is still long, but the immediate risk is on the downside.
Initial support is now seen at 1.4697. The next levels are 1.4631 and 1.4600.
Immediate resistance comes at 1.4805. This is followed by 1.4845, 1.4902 and 1.4950.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen is alternating up and down days, and Monday was a down day – eventually. This is because the pair aggressively reversed early gains. The initial risk is on the upside now – if 109.15 holds.
Immediate resistance remains at 109.65. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar remains weak, even though it managed to crawl to flat from a new low for its downmove. The medium-term outlook remains negative, while the short-term outlook is mixed.
Immediate support moved up to 1.8450. Further supports are at 1.8405, 1.8330 and 1.8190.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8565. The next likely cap remains 1.8620.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc has been alternating up and down days for six days and my model remains barely short. The immediate risk is now on the upside while the market is trying to make up its mind.
Initial support is still pegged at the nearby level at 1.0910. Below 1.0855, support remains at 1.0725.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1030. Above it, key resistance remains at 1.1185.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
26-08-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary August 26
By admin
August 25th, 2008 at 11:25am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 25, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The market is looking for a dip to buy dollars again after missing the big rally on July 22. The US currency rallied on Friday for this reason, but the sell-off in oil and the rally in stocks on rumors that Lehman will be bought underpinned. The immediate risk is on the upside and the only US economic report is existing home sales.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar gave back most of the gains made on Thursday. My model is long, but the immediate risk is on the downside.
Initial support is now seen at 1.4760. The next levels are 1.4700 and 1.4631.
Immediate resistance comes at 1.4845. This is followed by 1.4902 and 1.4950. The next levels remain at 1.5015 and 1.5065.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed aggressively all of the losses made a day earlier. My model is barely short. The initial risk is barely on the upside now.
Immediate resistance remains at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Support remains at 109.85. Further strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar failed its attempt to recover and closed on a very bearish tone on Friday. The medium term outlook remains negative.
Immediate support is at 1.8405. Further supports are at 1.8330 and 1.8190.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8480. The next likely cap is 1.8620.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc reversed Thursday’s sharp losses while alternating up and down days and my model is barely short here. The immediate risk is now on the upside while the market is trying to make up its mind.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1040. Above it, key resistance remains at 1.1185.
Initial support is pegged at 1.0910. Below 1.0855, support remains at 1.0725.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
25-08-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary August 25
By admin
August 22nd, 2008 at 04:30am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 22, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar fell sharply on Thursday amid weak US data, surging oil prices, and increased speculation that the government will be forced to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The leading economic indicators fell 0.7% in July, while the Philly Fed Factory Index improved to -12.7 in August from –16.3 in July, but the last time it was positive was in November. There are no US economic reports, but watch out for the UK GDP report. The dollar has a bearish bias.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied to a one-week high and my model reversed its short position since July 22. The immediate risk is higher.
Above 1.4905, good resistance now comes at 1.4963 from a Fibonacci retracement level. This is followed by 1.5050.
Initial support is now seen at 1.4830. Below 1.4785, further supports are seen at 1.4673 and 1.4600.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen collapsed to an over two-week low and my model remains short. It formed a double bottom that targets the 106.70 area and the initial risk remains on the downside.
Initial support is now seen at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Above 108.95, dollar/yen has strong resistance at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
The oversold sterling/dollar rallied to a one-week high on Thursday after forming several bullish reversal signals. My model went long. The immediate risk is on the upside, but watch out for the GDP report.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8850. Above 1.8900, distant resistance is pegged at 1.9123.
Below the immediate support at 1.8730 there is support at 1.8606. A pivot low remains at 1.8514.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc faked it out for two days, but collapsed on Thursday to a one week-low and my model went short. The immediate risk is on the downside now.
Initial support is now at 1.0798. The next strong level is at 1.0768. Below 1.0710, support is at 1.0685.
Immediate resistance moved to 1.0885. Above 1.0915, resistance comes at 1.0960. Distant resistance is at 1.1040.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
22-08-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary August 22
By admin
August 21st, 2008 at 02:38pm
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 21, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar generally consolidated on Wednesday, but reversed early losses against the Swiss franc in part because the Russia-Georgia war is not fanning out. Commodities are looking to bounce, while the US equity indices somehow advanced despite concern that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac might need to be rescued by the weekend. Summer doldrums? The UK will release its retail sales report today, but given the excessive decline in the previous reading, the risk is on the upside. On our side of the pond, only the Philly Fed survey is of interest. The outlook for the dollar is mixed.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar was all over the place on Wednesday and my model remains very close to reversing its short position since July 22. The immediate risk is higher, but the market needs new direction.
Above 1.4805, good resistance remains at 1.4845. This is followed by 1.4900 and 1.4950.
Initial support is still seen at 1.4714. Below 1.4640, further floors are seen at 1.4600, 1.4505 and 1.4440.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen consolidated in an inside range but closed basically unchanged. My model remains short. The initial risk remains on the downside.
Initial support is seen at 109.55. Strong support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Above 109.95, strong resistance remains at 110.35 from my 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. The next key level remains 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
The oversold sterling/dollar basically repeated Tuesday’s range, and despite its close at the lowest level of the downtrend, formed yet another potential bullish reversal. With the UK retail sales possibly making a mild recovery, the immediate risk is on the upside.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8670. The next level is 1.8722. Above 1.8786, distant resistance is pegged at 1.8867.
Below the immediate support at 1.8560, a pivot low remains at 1.8514. Further supports are seen at 1.8480 and 1.8405.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc reversed expected early losses to coin a fresh high for the uptrend and my model reversed its daylong short position. The immediate risk is slightly on the upside – only very slightly.
Immediate resistance moves to 1.1040. Above 1.1105, resistance remains at 1.1185.
Initial support is now at 1.0945. The next strong level is at 1.0880. Below 1.0855, support remains at 1.0800.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM:
21-08-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary August 21
By admin
August 20th, 2008 at 05:05am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 20, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar took a beating on Tuesday amid rising oil prices and sliding equity prices, and the weak US housing and the high PPI reports only added to concern. The next several days will be trying for the US financial sectors, so this turned the outlook for the dollar more bearish. No US economic reports are due today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied on Tuesday and my model is very close to reversing its short position since July 22. The immediate risk is higher.
Good resistance now comes at 1.4845. This is followed by 1.4900 and 1.4950.
Initial support is seen at 1.4714. Below 1.4640, further floors are seen at 1.4600, 1.4505 and 1.4440.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell for the second day on Tuesday and my model went short. The initial risk remains on the downside.
Initial support is seen at 109.55. Strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Above 109.95, strong resistance remains at 110.35 from my 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. The next key level remains 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
The oversold sterling/dollar formed another potential bullish reversal near the low for the downtrend. The immediate risk is on the upside.
Initial resistance still comes at 1.8700. Above 1.8786, further resistance comes at 1.8867.
Below the immediate support at 1.8624, there is a pivot low at 1.8514. Further supports are seen at 1.8480 and 1.8405.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell sharply from a new high for the uptrend and my model reversed its long position since July 22. The immediate risk remains on the downside.
Initial support is now at 1.0880. Below 1.0855, support moved to 1.0800 (very strong) and 1.0725.
Immediate resistance remains at 1.0960. Above 1.1008, resistance comes at 1.1055 and 1.1185.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
20-08-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary August 20
By admin
August 19th, 2008 at 06:52am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 19, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar consolidated near its high price versus the European currencies but fell against the yen on Monday. This means the euro/yen cross fell further as expected. Following a pullback today, the dollar should attempt to push further up. But the market needs to pick up volatility if such a rally is to occur.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar consolidated in a tight range and made little progress on Monday. The pair remains on track of a double top targeting the 1.4600 area and my model remains short since July 22, but the market lost momentum early in the week. The immediate risk is higher.
Good resistance remains at 1.4755. This is followed by 1.4832 and 1.4950.
Initial support is seen at 1.4640. Below the target at 1.4600, support now comes at 1.4505 and 1.4440.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
One day after nailing a high for the year, dollar/yen pulled back on Monday as expected, and came very close to turning my model short. The Gann pivot at 110.35 will continue to give direction, and the initial risk is still on the downside.
Initial support is seen at 109.65. Strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Immediate resistance remains at 110.35 from my 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. The next key level remains 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar marked time further on Monday after coining a new low for the downtrend. The selling pressure should pause today as well as cable remains oversold in the short term. The immediate risk is higher. In the medium term, cable remains on track for the target of a long-term head-and-shoulders pattern that targets the 1.7550 area.
Initial resistance still comes at 1.8700. Above 1.8786, further resistance comes at 1.8867.
Below the immediate support at 1.8624, there is a pivot low at 1.8514. Further supports are seen at 1.8480 and 1.8405.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc consolidated just below the high for the uptrend but didn’t cut any new path on Monday. My model remains long but the immediate risk remains on the downside.
Initial support is pegged at 1.0940. Below 1.0890, support is now seen at 1.0855 and 1.0725.
Immediate resistance remains at 1.1008. Above 1.1055, key resistance comes at 1.1185.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
By admin
August 18th, 2008 at 04:22am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for August 18, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
It was a strange day of trading on Friday for the dollar, as the crosses had the upper hand. The yen crosses fell further as expected, and EUR/CHF collapsed in view of the weekend risk from Russia. But things apparently cooled off now. The dollar climbed to new highs for the uptrend versus the majors, but held its gains only against the euro and yen. And the commodity currencies faired well to relatively well despite sliding commodity prices. Following a pullback today, the dollar should attempt to pad its gains.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell for the fifth straight week and closed below its rising trendline. The pair remains on track of a double top targeting the 1.4600 area. My model remains short since July 22. The immediate risk is higher.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4755. This is followed by 1.4832 and 1.4950.
Initial support is seen at 1.4640. Below the target at 1.4600, support now comes at 1.4505 and 1.4440.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen surged on Friday to a new high for the year and my model remains long. The Gann pivot at 110.35 will give direction, but the initial risk is down.
Immediate resistance is now at 110.35 from my 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. The next key level remains 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Strong support is now pegged at109.85. Further strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar consolidated after sliding to a new low for the downtrend. The selling pressure should pause today. In the medium term, cable remains on track for the target of a long-term head-and-shoulders pattern that targets the 1.7550 area. The immediate risk is higher.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8700. Above 1.8786, further resistance comes at 1.8867.
Below the immediate support at 1.8624, there is a pivot low at 1.8514. Further supports are seen at 1.8480 and 1.8405.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc rallied to a new high for the uptrend on Friday before surrendering most of the losses. My model remains long but the immediate risk is down.
Initial support is pegged at 1.0890. Below 1.0855, support is now seen at 1.0725.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1008. Above 1.1055, key resistance comes at 1.1185.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
18-08-2008 Forex News Forex Commentary August 18
By admin
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