Archive for June, 2008
June 30th, 2008 at 10:37am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 30, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The US currency accelerated its decline versus the majors, particularly against the yen, as some of the carry trade was liquidated. The dollar should remain under pressure today as well.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar surged further on Friday. The upside is still favored.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5842. Above 1.5930, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.6020.
Initial support is at 1.5720. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen sank aggressively, closing on Friday below the trendline rising since March 17. My model remains short, which is good, as a double top targeting 105.75 unfolded.
Initial support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Immediate resistance is seen at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a two-month high on Friday. My model remains long, which is good as the pair triggered a double bottom, which targets 2.0375.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, and more weakness may be in store. The close below the trending line rising since March 17 encourages further sales, but only a weekly close below 1.0149 would give me bear comfort.
Below 1.0149, support is now seen at .9996.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390. This is followed by 1.0540.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
June 27th, 2008 at 05:24am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 27, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
With the promise of higher rates later this year off the table, one of the few supports for the dollar was brusquely removed and the US currency tumbled against the majors. But the commodity currencies fell on the day as the appetite for risk dissipated. Take some of your cues from the spending/income and the University of Michigan reports, but with oil up and the stock markets down, the dollar should remain under pressure today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar surged to its highest level since June 9 after closing down only two of the past nine days. The upside is favored, but significant resistance looms at 1.5785.
If 1.5785 gives way, look for a further rally to the initial pivot high at 1.5842. Of course, the big prize remains at 1.6042.
Initial support is at 1.5745. Below 1.5660, EUR/USD has support at 1.5615. Further floors are at 1.5540, 1.5510 and 1.5470.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Long liquidation of yen crosses finally removed USD/JPY from the ubiquitous 107.95 pivot, and the pair collapsed to an over two-week low on Thursday. The selling pressure should persist, but look for support from a rising trendline at 106.50. Key level is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
If this trendline buckles, then look for support at 106.33 and 105.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105. 00 and 106.00
Resistance is initially seen at 107.00. Above 107.40, key resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
Forex News
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to an over 1 ½-month high on Thursday following hawkish comments by Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which kept open the possibility that interest rates may rise this year. It recovered about half of the losses registered between March and May, and more strength is liklely.
Initial resistace looms at 1.9908 from a long-term Fibonacci level. Above 1.9965, cable has resistance at 2.0005. Distant resistance looms at 2.0085.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9850. Below 1.9800, there is further support at 1.9760 and 1.9715. Distant support is now seen at 1.9585.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell for the third consecutive day and Thursday’s slide was aggressive. More weaknkess is in store.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. Below the pivot low at 1.0149, the pair has support at 1.0100. Distant support comes at 1.0017.
Above 1.0250, the dollar has resistance at 1.0295. Further resistance is stacked at 1.0337. Distant resistance looms at 1.0390.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
June 26th, 2008 at 05:39am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 26, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
Additional evidence that the US economy is in trouble, this time from the volatile durable goods orders and the new homes sales, did not affect the dollar. But the FOMC meeting did; the combination of worries about inflation but no rate hike proved to be a hot mix for volatility, which exploded for a few minutes. The dollar spiked wildly both ways, and when the dust settled, the US currency was lower. The selling pressure should continue today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar reversed losses and surged to a 16-day high after the Fed announcement, which was 5 minutes too early and surprised the market even move. My model remains long and the upside is favored.
Strong resistance is at 1.5727. Above 1.5750, euro/dollar has additional resistance at 1.5840 and 1.5865.
Initial support comes at 1.5635. The next levels are seen at 1.5565 and 1.5510. Below 1.5470, the next levels remain at 1.5430,1.5380 and 1.5305.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen yanked a one-week high on Wednesday, but when the dust settled, it remained around the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. My model remains short, but sideways trading should continue while the yen remains the neutral ingredient of long EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY crosses.
Initial support is still seen at 107.45. Strong support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.
Above 108.45, further resistance remains pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early losses in an impressive fashion but basically remained stuck in an inside range. Trading on Thursday has an upside bias.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9770. Above 1.9800, further resistance comes at 1.9890 and 1.9940.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9715. The next level is 1.9650. Below 1.9605, distant support is at 1.9560.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss finally ended its silly pattern of alternating up and down days, as its early gains on Wednesday were reversed dramatically by the Fed announcement. Bearish bias is favored.
Below 1.0336, further support comes at 1.0290. The next level is in the 1.0200 area.
Initial resistance is in place at 1.0385. The next levels are 1.0440 and 1.0490. Above 1.0540, distant resistance is at 1.0622.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
June 25th, 2008 at 03:53pm
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 25, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar plummeted on Tuesday on news the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index collapsed to a 16-year low in June, but it reduced losses on the day. The FOMC will leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, and probably for the rest of the year, but look for what they have to say. Keep an eye on the volatile durable goods orders and the new homes sales; the data should be bad but it’s probably discounted and the dollar should attempt to bounce.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar has been alternating up and down days, and Tuesday should be the down day. My model went long and the pair must break out of an inside range before the direction becomes clearer.
Good support is seen at 1.5510. Below 1.5470, the next levels are 1.5430,1.5380 and 1.5305.
Strong resistance is at 1.5620. Above 1.5650, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.5727.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen attempted breaks both ways on Tuesday, but when the dust settled, it remained around the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. My model remains short, but sideways trading is likely.
Initial support is at 107.45. Strong support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.
Above 108.45, further resistance is pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar made a mild recovery on Tuesday, but got stuck in an inside range. I expect only choppy trading on Wednesday with a bias on the downside.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9650. Below 1.9605, the next level is 1.9560. This is followed by 1.9500.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9720. Above 1.9760, further resistance comes at 1.9800, 1.9890 and 1.9940.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss is still alternating up and down days, and Wednesday should be an up day, if this silly pattern continues. My model remains long.
Initial resistance remains at 1.0490. Above 1.0540, resistance is at 1.0622.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.0400. Below 1.0336, further support comes at 1.0290.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
June 24th, 2008 at 10:23am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 24, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied on Monday, as expected. Miserable Eurozone data provided good reason to sell the euro, but dollar/yen rallied back to the 107.95 pivot. The US currency should attempt to advance today as well, but the overall direction and feeling did not get any clearer.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell sharply on Monday to surrender all of the Friday’s gains, and my model went short. Sideways to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5470. Below 1.5430, the next levels are 1.5380 and 1.5305.
Strong resistance is at 1.5570. Above 1.5650, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.5727.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed on Monday to obliterate Friday’s losses and moved back around the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45, and my model went short. The pair remains overbought, but sideways trading is likely.
Above 108.45, further resistance is pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Initial support is at 107.45. Strong support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell sharply on Monday, prompting my model to go short, but I expect only choppy trading with a bias on the downside.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9605. The next level is 1.9560. This is followed by 1.9500.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9690. Above 1.9760, further resistance comes at 1.9800, 1.9890 and 1.9940.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss is alternating up and down days, and Tuesday should be a down day, if this silly pattern continues. My model went long though. Trading should be mixed today.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0490. Above 1.0540, resistance is at 1.0622.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0400. Below 1.0336, further support comes at 1.0290.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
June 23rd, 2008 at 10:13am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 23, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar fell across the board on Friday and even dollar/yen moved (slightly) away from the 107.95 pivot. The US currency should attempt to bounce today though, as the direction and feeling are not clear at all.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar rallied sharply on Friday, and my model remains long. Sideways to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support is seen between 1.5573 and 1.5565. The next good levels lie at 1.5510 and 1.5545.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5650. Above 1.5727, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.5842.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen finally slipped on Friday and tried to put some distance from the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45, and my model went short. The pair is overbought, so more weakness is likely.
Initial support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.
Immediate resistance is seen at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Further resistance is pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Friday but remained stuck in an inside range on a weekly basis. My model remains long, but I expect only choppy trading.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9800. Above 1.9850, further resistance comes at 1.9890 and 1.9940.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9715. The next level is 1.9650. This is followed by 1.9595.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell on Friday to return Thursday’s gains. My model went short. Trading should be mixed today, and the upside is favored.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0390. Above 1.0445, resistance is at 1.0495 and 1.0548. This is followed by 1.0622.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0306. Below 1.0200, a pivot comes at 1.0149.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
June 20th, 2008 at 04:25am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 19, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar surged against he franc after the SNB left rates unchanged, surged against the pound following the ridiculously strong UK retail sales report, but continued to consolidate against the yen around the 107.95 pivot. The US currency should consolidate on Friday, but take your cues from the triple witching hour and oil price.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar struggled higher on Thursday as well, and my model is long, but closed slightly lower. Sideways to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5470. Below 1.5417, support comes at 1.5365.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.5570. Above 1.5645, euro/dollar has resistance at 1.5725. Strong resistance is at 1.5842.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen spiked down to a one-week low early Thursday, but closed basically unchanged, and it continued to hug the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45, and my model remains long. The pair is overbought, but take profit only on a confirmation.
Above 108.60, resistance is still seen at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 109.93, distant resistance is perched at 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Initial support is seen at 107.45. Next strong level is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged after the absurdly strong UK retails sales, but my model was long. The pair reached resistance of a trendline, so the upside seems very limited. So, the short-term outlook is mixed.
Initial resistance is at 1.9747. Above 1.9800, strong resistance remains at 1.9850.
Initial support is at 1.9690. Good support comes at 1.9650. Below 1.9585, further support comes at 1.9500.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed aggressively from a one-week low after the SNB left rates unchanged. My model went long in a timely fashion. Trading should be mixed today.
Initial resistance is 1.0495. Above 1.0548, distant resistance is at 1.0625.
Below 1.0390, support is now seen at 1.0320. Distant support is at 1.0255.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
By admin
June 19th, 2008 at 02:58am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 19, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar ended higher versus the European currencies on Wednesday, but continued to consolidate against the yen around the 107.95 pivot. The franc made most of the gains ahead of the SBC meeting, but the odds of a minute rate tightening are only 50/50. Watch out for the UK retail sales as well. Other things being equal, the US currency should consolidate further today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar struggled higher on Wednesday as well, and my model went long. Sideways to higher trading is likely on Thursday as well.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.5605. Above 1.5645, euro/dollar has resistance at 1.5725. Strong resistance is at 1.5842.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5525. The next level is 1.5470. Below 1.5417, support comes at 1.5365. D
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen continues to hug the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45, and my model remains long. The pair is overbought, but take profit only on a confirmation.
Above 108.60, resistance is still seen at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 109.93, distant resistance is perched at 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Initial support is seen at 107.45. Next strong level is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early losses but was stuck in an inside range. My model remains long. The short-term outlook is mixed.
Initial resistance is at 1.9620. Above 1.9687, strong resistance is now seen at 1.9760. Further resistance is perched at 1.9850.
Good support comes at 1.9505. Further support comes at 1.9410.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to a one week low ahead of the possible rate hike today and my model went short. Trading should be mixed to lower today.
Below 1.0305, support is now seen at 1.0255. This level is followed by 1.0200. Distant support is at 1.0149.
Initial resistance is 1.0375. Above 1.0460, the next cap remains at 1.0500. Distant resistance is at 1.0548.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
By admin
June 18th, 2008 at 02:30am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 18, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
A set of bad US data didn’t hurt the dollar all that much and the market looks confused. It ended slightly lower against the euro, the franc, and the yen but higher against the pound. Cable crashed on Tuesday after the open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor in response to UK rise in inflation to 3.3 percent in May was not as hawkish as expected. This eased concerns that the next move in UK interest rates will be up. With no data on tap on Wednesday, the US currency should consolidate.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar struggled higher on Tuesday, as expected, and my model went long. Sideways trading is likely on Wednesday.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.5540. Above 1.5570, euro/dollar has strong resistance at 1.5645.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5460. The next level is 1.5417. Below 1.5340, support comes at 1.5287. Distant support remains at 1.5230.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reduced losses on Tuesday and my model remains long. The pair is overbought, but take profit only on a confirmation.
Above 108.60, resistance is still seen at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 109.93, distant resistance is perched at 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Initial support is still seen at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Next strong level is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell sharply on Tuesday on the BoE letter, but reduced losses by the close and remained in an inside range. My model remains long. The short-term outlook is mixed.
Initial resistance is at 1.9605. Above 1.9687, strong resistance is now seen at 1.9760. Further resistance is perched at 1.9850.
Immediate support comes at 1.9500. Further support comes at 1.9410.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss ended marginally lower on Tuesday but made little progress. The model is (barely) long. Trading should be mixed today.
Below 1.0400, support is still seen at 1.0375. This important level is followed by 1.0310. Distant support is at 1.0200.
Initial resistance is 1.0460. The next cap remains at 1.0500. Key resistance is at 1.0548. This is followed by 1.0622.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
By admin
June 18th, 2008 at 02:30am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 17, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar sank versus the European currencies on Monday on relief that the G8 meeting went quietly out of the way, but dollar/yen advanced. More of the same is likely today, but take some cues from the US PPI, housing and industrial production reports.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar should recover further today and it won’t take much to turn my model long.
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.5518. Above 1.5570, euro/dollar has strong resistance at 1.5645.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5417. Below 1.5340, support comes at 1.5287. Distant support moved to 1.5230.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied to a new four-month high and my model remains long. The pair closed little changed, so it is overbought. Take profit only on a confirmation.
Above 108.60, resistance is still seen at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 109.93, distant resistance is perched at 110.35 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Initial support is seen at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Next strong level is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied sharply on Monday on concern about inflation and my model went long. The short-term outlook is mixed to slightly higher, as the most strength has probably been seen.
Above 1.9687, strong resistance is now seen at 1.9760. Further resistance is perched at 1.9850.
Immediate support comes at 1.9585. The next level is 1.9500. Further support comes at 1.9410.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss ended marginally lower but got stuck to an inside range. The model is (barely) long. Only a close above 1.0548 signals further strength, but choppy to lower trading is likely.
Below 1.0400, support is still seen at 1.0375. This important level is followed by 1.0310. Distant support is at 1.0200.
Initial resistance remains at 1.0500. Key resistance is at 1.0548. This is followed by 1.0622.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
By admin
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