July 8th, 2008 at 03:25pm
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 8, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar made aggressively reversed early gains on Monday to reflect the plunge of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae on NYSE on concern these two leading mortgage-finance companies may need to raise more capital; Lehman Brothers analysts had said Fannie Mae will add $46 billion of capital and Freddie Mac $29 billion. With the stocks confirming a bear market, the dollar should make another choppy decline – but the accent is on choppy!
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar reversed from a 1 ½-week low and closed higher on Monday, but my model remains short short. The market remains below the former rising trendline and only a close above 1.5735 would now encourage further strength.
Below 1.5674, support remains at 1.5605. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5735. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen slipped from a 1 ½-week high, but expect more choppy trading.
Resistance remains at 107.25. Distant resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Further support remains at 105.60 from another 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
A week economic report hurt sterling/dollar on Monday, but the pair still managed to reduce losses. My model remains short and the close below 1.9785 encourage more weakness. But choppy remains the key word for trading FX.
Below 1.9710, support is now seen at 1.9605. Distant support remains at 1.9540.
00145.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell from a 1 ½-week high, but made little progress on Monday, so expect further choppy trading. My model remains long.
Above 1.0325, resistance remains at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
Initial support is still in place at 1.0215. Below 1.0166, support is seen at 1.0113, 1.0065 and .9996.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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July 7th, 2008 at 05:40am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 7, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar managed to recover aggressively on Friday and thus to end the week higher, but this only shows the nervousness of the market, as the reasons for strength were simply not there. The ECB met the market expectations and tightened borrowing costs by 25 bps to 4.25 percent, but then President Trichet signaled the ECB wasn’t planning another rate rise, also as expected. Non-farm payrolls fell in June roughly as expected, but the revisions of the previous two months were horrendous. But the market was not about to vault euro/dollar to 1.6000 before the long weekend and the subsequent short covering of the US currency went out of hand. After initial strength, the US dollar should encounter choppy weakness.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell from a 2 ½-month high and closed lower last week, giving up a third of the rally between June 13 and July 3. My model went short. The market is on the verge here, after spearing the rising trendline in the non-market on Friday. Only a close below 1.5650 would encourage further weakness.
Below 1.5650, support is at 1.5605. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5740. Above 1.5820, euro/dollar faces key resistance at 1.5905.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Thursday, but my model remains short. Expect more choppy trading, as this pair is dancing to its own tunes. The level to give you initial direction is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Resistance comes at107.25. Distant resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 106.25. Strong support remains at 105.60 from another 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar made a bearish reversal, but I wouldn’t get too excited yet, as we need more information. My model went short. Just like the euro/dollar, cable pierced the rising trendline in extra-thin trading on Friday, but only a close below 1.9785 would encourage more sustained weakness.
Below 1.9785, support is now seen at 1.9745 and 1.9710. Distant support remains at 1.9605.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9885. The next levels are 1.9940 and 2.0005. Above 2.0040, distant resistance comes at 2.0145.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed from a 2 ½-month low on Friday and closed higher last week. My model went long, but the pair is only half way through the channel declining since May 8. A close above 1.0325, which is the former trendline rising since March 17, would encourage a more sustainable rally.
So, above 1.0325, resistance now comes at 1.0415 and 1.0450. Distant resistance comes at 1.0540.
Initial support is at 1.0215. Below 1.0166, support is seen at 1.0113, 1.0065 and .9996.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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July 3rd, 2008 at 12:14pm
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 3, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar suffered mostly against the euro and its convenient sub, the franc, but made little progress versus the yen and pound. Today will be a very difficult day, which would suggest at face value more dollar weakness. But both the 25-bp rate hike by the ECB and a weak non-farm payrolls are priced in, and we are facing a short trading day before the Independence Day holiday. Bon chance!
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar rallied to a 2 ½-month high on Wednesday, ahead of the expected European Central Bank rate hike today. The bias should be on the upside, but the event is already priced in.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5947. Above 1.6020, euro/dollar has additional resistance at 1.6065.
Initial support is now at 1.5865. The next levels are 1.5835 and 1.5795. Below 1.5740, further support remains at 1.5645.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen cannot sustain losses and cannot sustain gains. It closes marginally lower on Wednesday, and my model remains short. Expect more of the same.
Initial support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Above 106.45, strong resistance remains at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar recouped most of its intraday losses, but didn’t make any progress. My model remains long, but choppy trading should persist.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9970. The next level is 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss closed lower on Wednesday, but didn’t surpass this week’s lows. Again, we need fresh factors before getting out of this sideways market, maybe from the Middle East and maybe from the ECB. The downside should be favored
Immediate support is at 1.0105. Below 1.0075, support is still seen at .9996.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.0185. This is followed by 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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July 2nd, 2008 at 08:03am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 2, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar was all over the place on Tuesday, but when the dust settled, it made little progress. Expect further choppy trading today as well.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar closed slightly higher on Tuesday, as the market lacks direction. I don’t expect much clarity today either, but with the European Central Bank expected to hike rates on Thursday, the bias should be on the upside.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5842. Above 1.5930, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.6020.
Initial support is at 1.5760. The next levels are 1.5720 and 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen consolidated in an inside range to close flat on Tuesday as well, but my model remains short. Expect more of the same.
Above 106.45, strong resistance remains at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a 2 1/2-month high on Tuesday, but didn’t make any progress. My model remains long, but choppy trading should persist.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9970. The next level is 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss traded sideways to close unchanged on Tuesday. We need fresh factors before getting out of this rut.
Initial resistance remains at 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390. This is followed by 1.0540.
Immediate support is at 1.0155. Below 1.0075, support is still seen at .9996.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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July 1st, 2008 at 10:04am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for July 1, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar encountered very choppy trading conditions on Monday, amid last minute position adjustment for the end of the quarter, and managed to reverse early losses. The US currency looks primed for a rally on the first day of the second half of the year. Keep an eye on the US manufacturing ISM report – it may have some short-lived impact.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar made the expected upmove only in early trading and then fell from a three-week low to close down on Monday. It looks like a bearish reversal and more weakness is likely today.
Initial support remains at 1.5720. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5780. This is followed by 1.5842. Above 1.5930, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.6020.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed aggressively from a three-week low to close flat on Monday, but my model remains short. The price action signals a bullish reversal, but Monday’s activity was less than crystal clear, so take the signal with a grain of salt.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell from a two-month high to close lower on Monday. My model remains long, but another attempt on the downside is likely today.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9970. The next level is 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed from a 2 ½-month low to close higher on Monday. Another recovery attempt is likely on Tuesday.
Initial resistance remains nearby at 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390. This is followed by 1.0540.
Immediate support is at 1.0185. Below 1.0149, support is now seen at .9996.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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June 30th, 2008 at 10:37am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 30, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The US currency accelerated its decline versus the majors, particularly against the yen, as some of the carry trade was liquidated. The dollar should remain under pressure today as well.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar surged further on Friday. The upside is still favored.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5842. Above 1.5930, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.6020.
Initial support is at 1.5720. The next good level is at 1.5685. Below 1.5630, further support remains at 1.5575.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen sank aggressively, closing on Friday below the trendline rising since March 17. My model remains short, which is good, as a double top targeting 105.75 unfolded.
Initial support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Distant support is at 104.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Immediate resistance is seen at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a two-month high on Friday. My model remains long, which is good as the pair triggered a double bottom, which targets 2.0375.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0010. Above 2.0040, further resistance comes at 2.0145.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9885. The next level is 1.9800. This is followed by 1.9710.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, and more weakness may be in store. The close below the trending line rising since March 17 encourages further sales, but only a weekly close below 1.0149 would give me bear comfort.
Below 1.0149, support is now seen at .9996.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0230. Above 1.0295, resistance is at 1.0345 and 1.0390. This is followed by 1.0540.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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June 27th, 2008 at 05:24am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 27, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
With the promise of higher rates later this year off the table, one of the few supports for the dollar was brusquely removed and the US currency tumbled against the majors. But the commodity currencies fell on the day as the appetite for risk dissipated. Take some of your cues from the spending/income and the University of Michigan reports, but with oil up and the stock markets down, the dollar should remain under pressure today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar surged to its highest level since June 9 after closing down only two of the past nine days. The upside is favored, but significant resistance looms at 1.5785.
If 1.5785 gives way, look for a further rally to the initial pivot high at 1.5842. Of course, the big prize remains at 1.6042.
Initial support is at 1.5745. Below 1.5660, EUR/USD has support at 1.5615. Further floors are at 1.5540, 1.5510 and 1.5470.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Long liquidation of yen crosses finally removed USD/JPY from the ubiquitous 107.95 pivot, and the pair collapsed to an over two-week low on Thursday. The selling pressure should persist, but look for support from a rising trendline at 106.50. Key level is 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
If this trendline buckles, then look for support at 106.33 and 105.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105. 00 and 106.00
Resistance is initially seen at 107.00. Above 107.40, key resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are falling.
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NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to an over 1 ½-month high on Thursday following hawkish comments by Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee which kept open the possibility that interest rates may rise this year. It recovered about half of the losses registered between March and May, and more strength is liklely.
Initial resistace looms at 1.9908 from a long-term Fibonacci level. Above 1.9965, cable has resistance at 2.0005. Distant resistance looms at 2.0085.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9850. Below 1.9800, there is further support at 1.9760 and 1.9715. Distant support is now seen at 1.9585.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell for the third consecutive day and Thursday’s slide was aggressive. More weaknkess is in store.
Immediate support is at 1.0200. Below the pivot low at 1.0149, the pair has support at 1.0100. Distant support comes at 1.0017.
Above 1.0250, the dollar has resistance at 1.0295. Further resistance is stacked at 1.0337. Distant resistance looms at 1.0390.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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June 26th, 2008 at 05:39am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 26, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
Additional evidence that the US economy is in trouble, this time from the volatile durable goods orders and the new homes sales, did not affect the dollar. But the FOMC meeting did; the combination of worries about inflation but no rate hike proved to be a hot mix for volatility, which exploded for a few minutes. The dollar spiked wildly both ways, and when the dust settled, the US currency was lower. The selling pressure should continue today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar reversed losses and surged to a 16-day high after the Fed announcement, which was 5 minutes too early and surprised the market even move. My model remains long and the upside is favored.
Strong resistance is at 1.5727. Above 1.5750, euro/dollar has additional resistance at 1.5840 and 1.5865.
Initial support comes at 1.5635. The next levels are seen at 1.5565 and 1.5510. Below 1.5470, the next levels remain at 1.5430,1.5380 and 1.5305.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen yanked a one-week high on Wednesday, but when the dust settled, it remained around the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. My model remains short, but sideways trading should continue while the yen remains the neutral ingredient of long EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY crosses.
Initial support is still seen at 107.45. Strong support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.
Above 108.45, further resistance remains pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early losses in an impressive fashion but basically remained stuck in an inside range. Trading on Thursday has an upside bias.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9770. Above 1.9800, further resistance comes at 1.9890 and 1.9940.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9715. The next level is 1.9650. Below 1.9605, distant support is at 1.9560.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss finally ended its silly pattern of alternating up and down days, as its early gains on Wednesday were reversed dramatically by the Fed announcement. Bearish bias is favored.
Below 1.0336, further support comes at 1.0290. The next level is in the 1.0200 area.
Initial resistance is in place at 1.0385. The next levels are 1.0440 and 1.0490. Above 1.0540, distant resistance is at 1.0622.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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June 25th, 2008 at 03:53pm
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 25, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar plummeted on Tuesday on news the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index collapsed to a 16-year low in June, but it reduced losses on the day. The FOMC will leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, and probably for the rest of the year, but look for what they have to say. Keep an eye on the volatile durable goods orders and the new homes sales; the data should be bad but it’s probably discounted and the dollar should attempt to bounce.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar has been alternating up and down days, and Tuesday should be the down day. My model went long and the pair must break out of an inside range before the direction becomes clearer.
Good support is seen at 1.5510. Below 1.5470, the next levels are 1.5430,1.5380 and 1.5305.
Strong resistance is at 1.5620. Above 1.5650, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.5727.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen attempted breaks both ways on Tuesday, but when the dust settled, it remained around the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. My model remains short, but sideways trading is likely.
Initial support is at 107.45. Strong support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.
Above 108.45, further resistance is pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar made a mild recovery on Tuesday, but got stuck in an inside range. I expect only choppy trading on Wednesday with a bias on the downside.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9650. Below 1.9605, the next level is 1.9560. This is followed by 1.9500.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9720. Above 1.9760, further resistance comes at 1.9800, 1.9890 and 1.9940.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss is still alternating up and down days, and Wednesday should be an up day, if this silly pattern continues. My model remains long.
Initial resistance remains at 1.0490. Above 1.0540, resistance is at 1.0622.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.0400. Below 1.0336, further support comes at 1.0290.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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June 24th, 2008 at 10:23am
Under Daily Forex Commentary
Forex Market Commentary for June 24, 2008 Forex Rates Today
Forex Rates Today Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied on Monday, as expected. Miserable Eurozone data provided good reason to sell the euro, but dollar/yen rallied back to the 107.95 pivot. The US currency should attempt to advance today as well, but the overall direction and feeling did not get any clearer.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell sharply on Monday to surrender all of the Friday’s gains, and my model went short. Sideways to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5470. Below 1.5430, the next levels are 1.5380 and 1.5305.
Strong resistance is at 1.5570. Above 1.5650, euro/dollar sees additional resistance at 1.5727.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed on Monday to obliterate Friday’s losses and moved back around the 107.95 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45, and my model went short. The pair remains overbought, but sideways trading is likely.
Above 108.45, further resistance is pegged at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Initial support is at 107.45. Strong support is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant support is at 105.60.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell sharply on Monday, prompting my model to go short, but I expect only choppy trading with a bias on the downside.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9605. The next level is 1.9560. This is followed by 1.9500.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9690. Above 1.9760, further resistance comes at 1.9800, 1.9890 and 1.9940.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss is alternating up and down days, and Tuesday should be a down day, if this silly pattern continues. My model went long though. Trading should be mixed today.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0490. Above 1.0540, resistance is at 1.0622.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0400. Below 1.0336, further support comes at 1.0290.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
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