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  #291 (permalink)  
Old 03-15-2020, 02:14 PM
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 16 - 20, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. That's it! The world economy is no longer run by governments, banks, or corporations. The economy is reigned by only one "person" named Covid-19. The coronavirus pandemic has caused panic on the stock exchanges, a collapse in oil prices, a drop in production, and border closures. Humanity is scared, not knowing what to expect after a week, a month, six months. Schools and universities, restaurants and cafes, parks and stadiums are empty, and people are advised not to go out on the streets at all. Food and toilet paper are disappearing from supermarkets. All sorts of mass events are canceled, and a joke is circulating on social networks that the conference on the fight against the coronavirus was canceled because of...the coronavirus. President Trump's decision to close the US borders and ban the entry of Europeans sent markets into shock. EuroSTOXX50 futures fell 5.57%, while DAX30 futures fell 4.22%. US stock indexes suffered the biggest losses in the past 33 years. The main indexes of Japan, Australia, India, Hong Kong, South Korea, and other countries reached multi-year lows.
Recall that on March 04, the effect of an exploding bomb was produced by the decision taken at the emergency meeting of the US Federal Reserve to lower the key interest rate from 1.75% to 1.25%. Against this background, the EUR/USD pair soared by more than 640 points, coming close to the 1.1500 mark.
Unlike its American counterparts, the ECB left the rate unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, March 12. Bank Governor Christine Lagarde said the Eurozone banking system is stable and does not require a rate cut. (It is already negative and is -0.5%). But the market was much more impressed by Ms Lagarde's words that the ECB should not solve the problem of narrow spreads. Investors remembered the debt crisis triggered by rate hike in 2011, and both European stocks and the European currency immediately flew down, finding a bottom only on the horizon of 1.1055.
If last year the weekly range of fluctuations of the pair was barely approaching 200 points, this year EUR/USD easily overcomes this value in just a few hours. Last week, at the maximum, the dollar won back about 440 points from the euro. Then a correction followed, and the pair ended the five-day period near the 1.1100 level. This result, in our opinion, indicates that the markets are completely confused, as the pair once again returned to the Pivot Point zone, along which it has been moving since May 2019.
As for the forecast given a week ago, 40% of analysts voted that the pair would reach the 1.1450-1.1500 zone then. And it did it on Monday, March 09. The majority of experts (60%) voted for the pair's return to the range of 1.1000-1.1100, where, as mentioned above, it eventually returned. So, both were 100% right. is it a paradox? No, the coronavirus just decided that;

- GBP/USD. There are two main factors weighing on the pound. The first is the confusion in the oil market and the fall in prices for this energy carrier, which is closely correlated with the British currency. The second is the negative dynamics of the debt market. The yield on 10-year government bonds in the UK continues to decline in comparison with similar securities in the US and Germany. But if the bond yield just falls, the pound quotes are carried like an avalanche into the abyss. What else can you call a 900-point drop in just 5 days?
As a result, the pair reached the values of the first decade of October 2019 and ended the trading session where a week ago the bulls could not even imagine in their nightmares: at 1.2280;

- USD/JPY. The dollar has been rising since Monday evening, March 09, against the euro, the pound, and the yen. Investors are also getting rid of gold, with which the pair has an inverse correlation. As a result, having pushed off from the support of 101.17on Monday, on Friday, March 13, the pair was in the same place where it was on Friday, March 06 – at the level of 108.00. There is nothing strange in such a figure in terms of graphical analysis. The only striking thing is the timing and scope of fluctuations: – first 700 points down in 5.5 days, then the same amount up in 4.5 days. What can you do about it, this is now the new reality;

– cryptocurrencies. "Cui prodest?”, - said the ancient Romans, which means: "Look for who benefits." And it was the benefit for all crypto-gurus, crypto-millionaires and other owners of large volumes of cryptocurrencies. After all, it was they who had been convincing investors and traders that bitcoin, and with it the rest of the crypto market, will again soar to unprecedented heights in the near future. "Bitcoin has become a great tool for hedging currency risks and will soon replace the dollar!"- they had been shouting, urging everyone to invest in crypto-coins, thereby making them richer and richer. So what?
Talking about the spells of these "priests", we constantly warned that before investing money, it is necessary to correctly assess the situation, and, perhaps, instead of buy, open a position on sell – as the BTC/USD pair can not only grow rapidly, but also fall even more rapidly. Which is what happened last week.
If you believe the apologists of bitcoin, it was conceived as a lifeline at the time of the stock market collapse, falling exchange rates and the destruction of economic ties. We are seeing all these misfortunes at the moment, but instead of dragging investors up, getting more expensive against the dollar, Bitcoin is sinking them even faster.
In just one month from February 12 to March 13, the main cryptocurrency lost 58% in price, dropping from $10,340 to $4,300. On some exchanges, the drop was even greater – up to $3,815 and reached 63%.
Bitcoin lost up to half of its value in just one day from March 12 to 13, dragging the entire crypto market down with it, including such top altcoins as Ethereum (ETH/USD), litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD). The situation had somewhat stabilized by the evening of Friday, March 13, and the BTC/USD pair rose to the level of $5,600. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is only 10 points out of 100 possible, which means that the market is not just afraid, but terrified.


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  #292 (permalink)  
Old 03-15-2020, 02:15 PM
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The struggle of governments and regulators for the economies of their countries continues. The ECB did not cut interest rates but announced a 60% increase in the quantitative easing (QE) program, which will amount to €120 billion in 2019. For its part, the US Federal reserve is flooding the market with cheap money, under pressure from President Trump who is eager to be re-elected for the second term. The US has launched a short-term lending program since last week, under which the Fed is ready to lend $1.42 trillion to banks every week. This has never happened in the history of the United States. This week, banks have already received the first tranche at 0.255% per annum. This suggests that, with a high probability, the rate on the dollar will be reduced by at least 0.50% at the Fed meeting next week.
This balance of power is not in favor of the dollar. However, a small margin (55%) is still on the side of bears among the experts, they are supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4. The remaining 45% of analysts believe that the dollar will still lose its position, and the pair will again go north. This is agreed by 15% of oscillators on H4, which give signals about the pair being oversold.
Graphical analysis on H4 shows a sharp decline in the pair to the level of 1.0950, and then its growth first to the height of 1.1100, and then 100 points higher.
However, with the ongoing coronavirus panic, super-turbulence in the stock and currency markets, and surging oil prices, any forecasts can turn to dust in a second. And this is proved by the chaos that reigns in the indicator readings on D1, where the green, red and gray colors are mixed.
The main support zones are 1.1065, 1.1000, 1.0850 and the February low 1.0750. The resistance zones – 1.1175, 1.1240, 1.1350 and 1.1500;

- GBP/USD. It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators at the end of the weekly session are looking down. However, the situation is somewhat different among oscillators – 20% of them on the H4 timeframe and 15% on D1 are already in the oversold zone, which indicates an imminent correction or reversal of the trend up. Graphical analysis on D1 supports this development as well. According to its readings, the pair can reach the bottom near the October 2019 low of 1.2200, and then turn around and go north – first to the resistance of 1.2425, and then to the height of 1.2565. At the same time, given the range of fluctuations in recent weeks, it makes sense to designate two more support levels – 1.2065 and 1.1960, and two resistance levels – 1.2725 and 1.2870. Although, perhaps, this is not the limit.
As for the opinions of experts, it was not possible to form one for the upcoming week. But in the forecast for the next 1-2 months, the number of supporters of the pair's growth is a clear majority-75%, the goal is to rise to the level of 1.2900-1.3100;

- USD/JPY. If in the medium-term forecast for GBP/USD, most analysts voted for the growth of the pound and the fall of the dollar, the situation is the opposite with respect to the yen. Here, 60-70% of experts believe that in the next 1-2 months, the Japanese currency will lose its position, the pair will pass through the 108.30-109.75 zone like a knife through butter and reach the 112.00-112.40 level. The next target for the bulls is 200 points higher.
Note that in the coming week, in addition to the US Federal Reserve's decision on the interest rate, we are waiting for similar decisions by the Bank of Japan on Thursday March 19 and the People's Bank of China on Friday March 20. Both of these regulators announced their intention to support commercial banks and companies in their countries. And if fluctuations in yuan rates do not surprise the market, a reduction in the yen rate will be a big surprise for investors.
If, when the dollar rate is lowered, the yen rate remains at the same negative level of -0.1%, it is possible that the scales will tilt in favor of the Japanese currency, and the USD/JPY pair will go down again, breaking through the supports of 105.90, 104.50 and 103.15 one after another. The bears' goal is to return to last week's low and try to test the 101.00 level.
And, of course, it will be necessary to closely monitor the current yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds and oil prices, which largely determine the Japanese yen quotes;

– cryptocurrencies. "What was that?"- many traders and investors ask themselves, looking back at the events of the past week. Was it the beginning of the end? Or a game of big speculators, after which Bitcoin will more than recoup all losses? Or, perhaps, people just did not fully believe in a bright crypto future, and in a critical situation related to the coronavirus, they simply preferred to get rid of virtual wealth, exchanging it for time-tested, quite tangible dollars.
The forecasts of the surveyed experts at the moment look rather timid and modest. According to 65% of them, the BTC/USD pair can reach the $6,000-6,500 zone next week. The remaining 45% can see it around $5,000.
But further on the situation for the bulls looks somewhat worse. Only 20% of experts believe that Bitcoin will be able to confidently gain a foothold above $7,000 by the end of March, and another 20% predict the coin will fall to the $3,000-3,500 zone. The remaining 60% are in no hurry to give any forecasts at all.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  #293 (permalink)  
Old 03-29-2020, 11:21 AM
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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 30 - April 03, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The pair's flights in recent weeks can be compared to aerobatics: first, an almost vertical takeoff up by 630 points, then a vertical peak by 860, and now a new leap up by 445 points.
Several factors caused the sharp drop in the dollar. The main one is the actions of the US Federal Reserve, which lowered the interest rate to 0.25% and launched a number of programs to support the US economy, injecting billions of dollars and distributing money to its citizens. As a result, the Fed's balance sheet exceeded a record 4.5 trillion dollars, and according to economists' calculations, it may even reach 6 trillion dollars. As a result, US stock indexes flew up, the S&P500 jumped by as much as 20%, pulling the EUR/USD pair with it: investors reacted positively to the steps taken by the US leadership and began to turn away from the dollar as a safe haven asset, preferring more attractive assets at the moment.
The ECB's coronavirus-related decision helped the European currency as well. Previously, the ECB could buy no more than a third of a country's public debt under the quantitative easing (QE) program, but now the Bank has removed this restriction, which has had a positive impact on the yield of Eurobonds and contributed to the growth of the euro.
It should be noted that 60% of experts expected the pair to return to the 1.1000-1.1240 zone within a month, and 75% during the quarter. But, as practice shows, the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a powerful catalyst or driver, repeatedly speeding up market processes. So, it happened this time: the pair reached the set goal not in a quarter, nor even in a month, but in just five days, putting the final point on Friday, March 27 at 1.1140;

- GBP/USD. Macroeconomic indicators such as the business activity index (PMI) indicate a contraction of the UK economy, to protect which the Bank of England has twice lowered the interest rate and increased the volume of bond purchases by ?200 billion over the past two months. However, at the last meeting, the leaders of this regulator unanimously voted against further reducing the rate and keeping it at 0.1%. It was also decided to leave the volume of bond purchases unchanged, at the level of ?645 billion. This indicates that the Bank of England considers the measures taken at this stage sufficient.
The impact of the coronavirus on the UK economy will become more apparent after we learn the results of the first quarter of 2020. So far, the situation here looks little better than in the EU and the US. Support for the pound is now also provided by the ability of the Government of this country to print its own money, without any agreements with the EU.
The bounce of the GBP/USD pair up last week looks even more impressive than the growth of EUR/USD: the British pound took away more than 830 points from the dollar. Recall that on March 20, it fell to the lowest values for the last 230 (!) years, and from 70% to 80% of analysts expected that, having fought off this bottom, the pound will be able to return to the zone of 1.2725-1.3025 during April-May. So far, this forecast is justified: the pair completed the five-day period on the way to the set goal, at the level of 1.2470;

- USD/JPY. The end of March turned out to be favorable for the Japanese currency, whose quotes, as usual, depend on the risk appetite of investors, oil prices and the yield of US government bonds.
The forecast, which was supported by the majority of experts, turned out to be correct by 99.9% if not by 100%. According to it, the pair should have turned south and headed to the 107.00-107.70 zone. This happened in fact: after making several attempts to break through the resistance of 111.60, the bulls gave up, and the bears very quickly lowered the pair by 385 points – to the level of 107.75, near which – at the level of 107.95 – it ended the trading session;

– cryptocurrencies. We suggested in the previous forecast that Bitcoin quotes can be used as a leading indicator for forecasts for major dollar pairs. The main idea was that a lull in the crypto market during financial storms can be a harbinger of a trend change or a strong correction for EUR/USD. According to the voiced theory, the transition of the BTC/USD pair to a flat state in the conditions of continued over-volatility in other markets may indicate that the dollar has reached critical values, and large speculators do not know what to do, whether to increase dollar assets by selling BTC, or, on the contrary, to convert fiat into cryptocurrency.
Of course, this is only a theory, with many reservations, but last week it was confirmed: the charts show a flat in the crypto market and a predicted sharp reversal of the trend for EUR/USD.
Bitcoin has risen in price by less than 9% over the past seven days, Ripple (XRP/USD) – by 10%, Litecoin (LTC/USD) – by 3%, and the growth of Ethereum (ETH/USD) was less than 1%.
By the way, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently presented a roadmap for the development of ETH for the next 5-10 years. In addition, he called for the development of decentralized bridges between Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies and for the creation of a "real" decentralized exchange (DEX) for the exchange of BTC and ETH. However, judging by the Ethereum quotes, his ideas have not yet found a response in the hearts and wallets of investors.


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  #294 (permalink)  
Old 03-29-2020, 11:24 AM
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. After winning back 50% of the losses of the previous two weeks, the pair eventually returned to the Pivot Point 1.1100 zone, around which it has been rotating for many months, starting from the end of July 2019. This suggests that the market does not know what else to expect from the coronavirus and from the governments that have entered the fight against it.
On the one hand, we can observe an avalanche-like increase in the number of diseases in the United States, and it is unknown whether President Trump and his administration will have the strength and ability not just to take control, but to seriously improve the situation. A significant part of the money that the Fed is pouring into the country's economy goes to pay unemployment benefits and one-time payments to individuals who... are quarantined and can't spend it. As a result, these funds will not reach the real sector of the economy in the near future. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin exudes optimism, saying that the current situation is not yet a financial crisis. However, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, already agrees that the US economy "may well be in recession", and the agenda is now dictated by the virus. And it is possible that a severe recession may turn into a depression at some point.
On the other hand, the situation in Europe is no better. The results of the EU summit held on Thursday, March 26, were described by some analysts as "simply terrible". The representatives of the countries did not manage to reach a common opinion, the idea of European "corona bonds" is buried (at least for a while), and the ECB is having a hard time maintaining stability in the euro area. According to a number of experts, such disunity of the EU member states severely limits the opportunities for strengthening the European currency.
At the moment, the graphical analysis points to the north, the vast majority of indicators look in the same direction, and only 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 give signals about the EUR/USD pair being overbought.
Among experts, the majority (60%) is also set to continue the growth of the pair, while the remaining 40% voted for the fall. Resistance levels (taking into account current volatility) are 1.1240, 1.1365 and 1.1500, support levels are 1.1000, 1.0850, 1.0775 and 1.0635. Well, two seemingly unattainable goals (although, at present, everything is possible): bullish – 1.1800, bearish – 1.0550.
As for the release of macroeconomic indicators, data on unemployment and the consumer market in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be available on Monday, March 30 and Tuesday, March 31. And the second half of the week will bring us a whole avalanche of data on the US labor market. Let's just say that in all cases, the forecasts are disappointing. For example, the number of jobs created outside the us agricultural sector (NFP) is expected to fall from plus 273K to minus 123K;

- GBP/USD. Assessing the prospects for the British economy, chief economist at IHS Markit, Chris Williamson, almost repeated what Jerome Powell said about the American. "The onset of a recession of unprecedented scale in modern history is becoming more likely," – this is the prophecy of Williamson. And even the UK's exit from the EU does not have such a negative impact on the economy as COVID-19.
In this context, despite the medium-term forecast, 60% of analysts expect a downward trend reversal and the beginning of a new phase of the pound's fall in the next week. If we talk about technical analysis, the H4 timeframe is dominated by green, but 20% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. The signals of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 can be described as multidirectional.
Graphical analysis on both timeframes supports the bearish forecast but assumes that the pair will stay in the range of 1.2250-1.2600 for some time before going down sharply.
The resistance levels are 1.2600, 1.2750, 1.3025, 1.3200 and 1.3515. Support levels are 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.1800 and 1.1450;

- USD/JPY. The pair ended the last week near the strong support/resistance level of 108.00, and most analysts (60%), as in the case of EUR/USD and GBP/USD, expect a trend reversal and subsequent strengthening of the dollar. If this happens, the pair has quite a lot of chances to still overcome the 111.60-112.00 mark and rise another 100 points higher. The nearest strong resistance is in the area of 109.70-110.00.
The remaining 40% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, side with the bears. Support is in the zones 106.70-107.25 and 104.70-105.00, further targets are 103.00 and the March 09 low in the area of 101.00;

– cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved just 3 points over the week, from 9 to 12, and still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market. At the same time, the number of requests for the word "Bitcoin" in the search engines Baidu and Google has grown significantly over the past month, and most users are interested in buying cryptocurrency. So, the number of requests increased by 138% over the past month in the Baidu search engine, and according to Google Trends, the growth was 57%.
As usual, the growth of the reference cryptocurrency is predicted by all sorts of crypto gurus, especially since now they have a powerful ally in the person of the COVID-19 coronavirus. So, the well-known analyst Joseph Young expressed confidence in the positive impact on Bitcoin of the measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to stimulate the American economy. "The Fed endlessly prints money to pump the markets — this is good for Bitcoin. The devaluation of the dollar in the long run is good for Bitcoin. The short-term prospects may be bleak for this cryptocurrency, but the long-term outlook remains very bright, " he said.
Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital, also agrees with Young. He is confident that the global economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will be the time of Bitcoin's breakthrough. "Bitcoin will remain volatile for the next few months, but the macroeconomic backdrop is what it was created for. This year should be and will be the year of BTC," the billionaire said.
Philip Salter, Operating Director of Genesis Mining, joins this chorus of voices. He is convinced that the deepening economic crisis will lead to an increase in the popularity of Bitcoin as a tool for hedging the risks of the banking system. "If the development of the economic crisis can be prevented, there will be no major changes to Bitcoin. However, if there is a real collapse, the interest in the first cryptocurrency will take off. The more skepticism about the old economy, the more interest in bitcoin, " the top manager of this popular cloud mining service shared his thoughts.
As for the nearest forecasts, the well-known trader Ton Weiss is sure that with the current Bitcoin quotes, the probability of falling below the recent low of $3800 is 20-25%. The first cryptocurrency will have even less chance of collapsing to such levels if it overcomes the $6800 level - just 15%. "Going above the $6800 level will give me 85% confidence that we will not go below this level," -Weiss States. In general, 55% of experts expect that the BTC/USD pair will reach the $7,500-8,000 zone within the next few weeks. The remaining 45% of analysts, on the contrary, predict a fall in the pair. In their opinion, BTC/USD will once again try to test the support of $5,700 and, if successful, will again be at the level of $5,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/
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  #295 (permalink)  
Old 04-01-2020, 02:19 PM
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CryptoNews


- Microsoft has published a patent application for a device called “Cryptocurrency system that uses data on body activity.” Apparently, the device will be designed to use human energy for mining cryptocurrencies. The document says that this will be a set of sensors with a module that converts the energy of the human body. According to some experts, "brain waves in the process of human activity emit a huge amount of energy, and this type of activity can easily be translated into computing power." Microsoft representatives have not yet commented on the new product, however, according to insider information, the device may appear on sale before the beginning of 2021, unless it is an April Fool’s joke.

- Messari analyst Cao Wang believes that Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market may exceed 90% by the end of the crisis, instead of the current 66%. According to the expert, "during the period of the entire market drawdown, large investors prefer to work with proven cryptocurrencies. Most often, they choose Bitcoin, since its volatility does not look potentially dangerous. Other coins do not show so good results. We can single out Ethereum among the promising assets, but even it is currently trading in the red zone."
Cao Wang also drew attention to the fact that many investors prefer to invest in the US dollar at the moment. However, if the global crisis becomes even larger, some of them will rush to the cryptocurrency market, where, due to lack of experience, they will buy Bitcoin, considering it the main and most reliable digital currency.

- Option traders believe that Bitcoin will not be able to update the historical high of $20,000 this year. According to the Skew analytical platform, the probability of this event is only 4%. Experts say that the May halving has ceased to be a driver of future growth rate of the asset. In all the options that analysts have studied, an extremely small part of speculators bet on Bitcoin exceeding the $10,000 mark. Most of the traders believe that the cryptocurrency will continue to trade in the range of $5,000-6,000.

- The CEO of the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao is often criticized for his overly expressive statements that can encourage subscribers to take irresponsible actions. This time, Zhao called for the purchase of Bitcoins, even on credit. "An insane amount of money will soon flow into the financial system. Buy cryptocurrencies with your Visa cards, " Zhao tweeted.
Samson Mow, Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream, agrees with Changpeng Zhao. In his opinion, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to print $6.2 trillion to maintain liquidity in connection with the economic crisis makes an excellent advertisement for Bitcoin, which was created just to counterbalance the rampant monetary printing press. "How much did we pay Trump to advertise Bitcoin?"- joked the top manager.
But another well-known analyst and trader, Peter Brandt, believes that Bitcoin may have "big problems" if it can't demonstrate steady growth against the backdrop of the fall of the traditional financial market.

- According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of wallets containing at least one BTC coin has grown by 60% in three years and reached a record high of 800 thousand. The previous record was set at the end of 2017, when the exchange rate of the main digital coin set a historical high at $20,000. At that time, the number of such wallets was about 720 thousand. Since then, the number of addresses with a balance of at least one coin has been growing all the time, with the exception of the end of 2018, when the Bitcoin exchange rate collapsed to $3,200, their number fell to 690 thousand.
Cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, OKEx, Bitfinex, Paxful and Luno also reported an increase in the number of new users against the background of the coronavirus. According to Kraken, the number of registrations on their platform has increased by 83%. "This influx of new users to the exchange is not due to the fact that people have nothing to do in quarantine during the pandemic. Most likely, people want to use the crisis and gain independence from the "outdated" financial system," says Pierre Rochard, a specialist in strategic development at Kraken.

- Hackers have recently repeatedly broken into popular accounts on YouTube and have used them to arrange fake distributions of cryptocurrencies on behalf of famous people. This time, the scammers hacked more than thirty different YouTube channels, renamed them to allegedly various Microsoft brands, and broadcast through them a speech by Bill Gates in June 2019. At the same time, along with the "live broadcast", the scammers showed ads for a "prize draw", in which users were asked to send a certain amount in cryptocurrencies, which they allegedly would double in response.

- The Kraken exchange believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $350,000 by 2044. This will be facilitated by the transition of a $68 trillion inheritance of capital from the "baby boomers" to the younger generations. Kraken experts gave a quantitative assessment of the potential flow of inherited capital into Bitcoin. According to their base scenario, with a tax of 2% and a peak of placing funds in the cryptocurrency at 5% of inherited assets, the inflow of investment in Bitcoin will be $971 billion. Based on the difference between the current issue of BTC and the expected figure for 2044, the price of the main cryptocurrency can reach $349,255. Even according to the most conservative estimate of exchange specialists, it will be around $70,000.


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  #296 (permalink)  
Old 04-03-2020, 02:00 PM
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CORONAVIRUS: NOT TIME TO GET SICK, TIME TO PROFIT



Because of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the crypto market, Forex, and exchanges are all going down. "This is a great time to make a profit! Go to quarantine, stay at home and ... earn!"- experts of the brokerage company NordFX advise


The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic continues to control the global markets. Countries are being quarantined, factories and offices are empty, and authorities are urging their citizens not to leave their homes. Of course, it is a forced measure, and there is nothing good about it. But there is still one advantage there: now we have much more time not only for active trading, but also for training and improving our own trading strategies.

Until recently, many crypto gurus convinced us to invest in Bitcoin, which, they said, was to protect us in the event of a crisis in the traditional markets. However, the onset of the coronavirus proved the complete failure of this theory: it turned out that instead of growing, the main cryptocurrency can fall very quickly along with currencies, oil and stock indexes.
In just one month from February 12 to March 13, it lost 58% in price, dropping from $10,340 to $4,300. On some exchanges, the drop was even greater: up to $3,815, and reached 63%. Bitcoin lost up to half of its value only in one day from March 12 to 13, dragging the entire crypto market to the bottom. Quite a safe haven!

And if passive investors who invested money in Bitcoin in the hope that its price, as a result of the halving or just for no reason, will soar to the cosmic heavens, experience only disappointment, active traders, on the contrary, have received another opportunity to make a large profit.

Recall that international brokers such as NordFX, unlike crypto exchanges, provide traders with significantly more opportunities to increase their capital.

First, NordFX clients have the opportunity to earn both on the growth and the fall of cryptocurrencies, which is very important in the conditions of such a high market volatility. At the same time, in order to make money on the fall of the Bitcoin, you do not need to have it at all: trading is similar to the CFD contracts for difference. You just open a sell trade in the trading terminal, and if the coin quotes go down, you will get a profit.

Secondly, this profit can be very high, because the broker provides its clients with the opportunity of margin trading. So, you just need the following to open trades on cryptocurrency pairs in NordFX:
- $150 to open a position of 1 Bitcoin
- $15 to open a position of 1 Ethereum
- $0.3 to open a position of 1 EOS
- $0.02 to open a position of 1 Ripple.

That is, to buy or sell 1 Bitcoin at the current price, you do not need to have $6000, but only $150 is enough, which allows you to make a profit 40 times greater than in normal trading without margin. So, in just one month from February 12 to March 13, you could have made a profit of 4000% on the fall of BTC.

In total, NordFX clients have the opportunity to make transactions with 11 cryptocurrency pairs. The order execution speed is less than 0.5 seconds. Deposits are in US dollars, Bitcoins or Ethereum at the customer's choice, and the minimum deposit is only $10.

And third, another important point is the ability to hedge transactions on cryptocurrencies, opening parallel positions on the Forex market (33 currency pairs), or trading gold, silver, oil, shares of leading global companies or major stock indices such as Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nikkei, etc. And here, just as in the case of cryptocurrencies, you can earn not only on the growth of the price of these assets, but also on its fall. At the same time, the broker will immediately, automatically and without any collateral provide you with a leverage of up to 1:1000 for currency pairs. That is, if you have, for example, only $100, you can make transactions worth $100,000.

Summing up the above, we can say that the onset of the coronavirus is not a time to indulge in boredom, discouragement, and even more so, panic. This is a time to earn money, and self-isolation can bring real benefits to your health and finances. Quarantines begin and end, life goes on!

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


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  #297 (permalink)  
Old 04-06-2020, 12:04 PM
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 06 - 10, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The German unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5% in March. But the data on the US labor market looks just terrifying: 6.648 million applications for unemployment benefits, this figure has increased by 10 million in two weeks, which is equivalent to 6% of the entire labor force. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector went down: -705K in March instead of +275K in February. Other indicators are no better. It is possible that the unemployment will jump higher than during the great depression. And at the same time, the dollar has been growing all week, taking away more than 350 points from the euro, which indicates that the market was already ready for such a collapse of the US economy and took this into account in its quotes in advance. The dollar was also helped by statements from President Trump and the Saudi Energy Ministry about a possible return to the negotiations in the OPEC+ format and an end to the oil war. Although, there is as little clarity on this front as on the front of the fight against the COVID-19 coronavirus.
At the end of the week, having made a five-day walk to the south this time, the EUR/USD pair reached a strong support/resistance zone around 1.0800, where it set the final chord;

- GBP/USD. The most accurate forecast for this pair was given by graphical analysis, which predicted the sideways movement of the pair, which looks truly amazing. The pair stayed in the range of 1.2245-1.2485 for the whole week, and the scope of its fluctuations did not exceed 240 points, which, according to the current violent times, can be considered a flat. Some analysts believe that the reason for this is the increased interest of investors in the sharply cheaper pound in the first two decades of March, which leveled the current problems in the British economy;

- USD/JPY. A similar pattern to the GBP/USD is also visible on the chart of this pair, which also stayed in a 180-point wide side channel all week (106.90-108.70). And this is despite the fact that the dollar index for the week rose by 2.5%. One of the versions that explains this behavior of both pairs is that investors and speculators were so caught up in the struggle between the two "titans", the dollar and the Euro, that they postponed a serious game on the pound and the yen for the future, when it is clear what is happening with the two leading economies of the world and what the next actions of their regulators are;

– cryptocurrencies. Recall that when analyzing the situation on the crypto market, we use a seven-day interval from previous Saturday to current Friday. The volatility of BTC/USD during this period was about 23%: having fallen on Monday, March 30 to the level of $5,870, the pair turned around and reached its peak of $7,260 on Thursday, April 02, followed by a rebound down, and the quotes were again below the level of $7,000. If you look at the chart, you can clearly see that for three weeks now, the bulls have been persistently trying to break through this resistance and gain a foothold above $7,000, but to no success so far. Due to the crisis caused by the coronavirus, investors are quite cautious, not risking transferring large amounts of fiat into cryptocurrencies. During the week, the market capitalization of the crypto market has not changed and is at the level of $256 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index does not leave the red zone: it was at 9 two weeks ago, seven days later its value was 12, and now it is 14 out of 100 possible, which still indicates the presence of a strong fear in the market.
As for such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD), they, following the main cryptocurrency, also formed figures called "ascending triangle", trying to rise and gain a foothold above their own resistance zones: Ripple – above $0.18, Litecoin – $41, and Ethereum – $145.


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Old 04-06-2020, 12:05 PM
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The regulators, both the Fed and the ECB, are now trying to put out the fire by flooding their markets with cheap money. But the fire of the corona crisis was so strong that it could not be controlled quickly. The data on the US economy for March leaves one speechless. But this is not all, the data for April, which we will see in a month, may look much more dramatic. In addition, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is growing day by day, and its policy of easing reduces the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven currency. These arguments allow analysts at Nordea Markets to say that the EUR/USD pair is more likely to return to 1.1500 rather than to fall to 1.0000.
On the other hand, even in the Eurozone, despite the current account surplus, things are not running smoothly. Germany and other Northern European countries that are members of the EU have recently rejected the offer of Italy, France, Spain and six other Euro zone countries to issue joint bonds – coronabonds. Whether they can overcome their differences will become clear in the very near future, on Tuesday, April 07, a meeting of the Eurogroup consisting of EU Finance Ministers is due to take place, and on Wednesday, April 08, the ECB meeting on monetary policy will be held. Also, the results of the OPEC meeting on Monday April 06 and the results of the Fed meeting on April 08 may affect the formation of trends.
Meanwhile, 65% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, 75% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators, expect the downtrend to continue and the pair will decline to the lows of March 20-23 in the 1.0650 zone. The next support is at the level of 1.0500, the goal is the low of 1.0340 on January 01, 2017.
It should be noted that when switching from a weekly to a medium-term forecast, the situation changes radically, and here 65% of analysts expect that the pair will turn around at the end of April – in May, first it will return to the height of 1.1100, then 1.1240, and eventually rise to the level of 1.1500. At the same time, 45% of experts do not exclude that this may happen in the nearest future;

- GBP/USD. After such a difficult decision to leave the EU, the British regulators are doing everything possible to stabilize the economic situation. Against this background, 20% of analysts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair's sideways trend to continue in the range of 1.2245-1.2485. 50% of experts expect the channel to break down and reduce the pair to the 1.1640-1.1940 zone. The remaining 30%, on the contrary, side with the bulls, indicating the resistance levels of 1.2475, 1.2625 and 1.2840. As for the indicators, while most of the trend indicators are colored red, there is a complete discord among the oscillators: 25% on D1 signal that the pair is overbought, and the same amount on H4 show that it is oversold;

- USD/JPY. 60% of analysts expect from this pair a breakout of the 108.70 resistance and a strengthening of the dollar to the level of 111.65. Further growth of the pair remains in question, as several attempts between March 20 and 25 were unsuccessful.
Bear supporters among experts are now a minority - 40%, the nearest goal is to return to the lower border of the corridor 106.90-108.70. If it is broken through, the pair will first rush to the support of 105.00, then to 103.15, and then to the low of March 09 at the level of 101.15. It is difficult to say how long the pair will be able to cover this distance but considering the recent flights of 700 points a week, it can happen quite quickly.
As for the indicators, the discord is similar to the GBP/USD. On H4, 70% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are colored green, while the rest are red. On D1, the picture is diametrically opposite. A compromise situation is offered by graphical analysis on H4: first growth to the zone of 111.00, then a sharp drop first to the support of 108.00, and then another 100 points lower;

– cryptocurrencies. Messari analyst Cao Wang believes that the dominance of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market by the end of the crisis may exceed 90%, instead of the current 66%, as large investors prefer to work with the most reliable and proven coins during the market drawdown. At the same time, according to the Skew analytical platform, based on a survey of option trading participants, the BTC/USD pair will not be able to update the historical maximum of $20,000 this year, the probability of this event is only 4%. An extremely small part of option speculators bets even on a growth above the $10,000 mark.
However, investors are still pinning their hopes on the printing press launched by the Central banks of the leading countries due to the crisis. "An insane amount of money will soon be poured into the financial system," Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance crypto exchange, tweeted. Samson Mow, Chief Strategy Officer at Blockstream, agrees with him. In his opinion, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to print $6.2 trillion makes an excellent advertisement for Bitcoin, which was created just just to counterbalance the rampant monetary printing press. It is logical that, with the surplus of the fiat subject to depreciation, investors will again turn to the cryptocurrency market, and the BTC quotes will go up sharply.
The data from the analytical service Glassnode also look optimistic, according to which the number of wallets containing at least one BTC coin has reached a record high of 800 thousand. Cryptocurrency exchanges Kraken, OKEx, Bitfinex, Paxful and Luno have also reported an increase in the number of new users against the background of the coronavirus. For example, according to Kraken, the number of registrations on their platform has increased by 83%.
As for the pessimists, we can refer to the well-known analyst and trader Peter Brandt, who believes that Bitcoin may have "big problems" if it can not demonstrate steady growth against the background of the fall of the traditional financial market.
And in conclusion, another very long-term forecast, which will undoubtedly please even those who once purchased Bitcoin for $20,000 and since then have been watching its quotes with sadness. According to Kraken experts, the price of Bitcoin can reach $350,000 by 2044, which should be facilitated by the transition in the form of a $68 trillion inheritance from "baby boomers" to younger, "digital" generations. So, it's not a total loss, ladies and gentlemen!


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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  #299 (permalink)  
Old 04-08-2020, 12:59 PM
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CryptoNews



- The Weiss Ratings rating agency experts believe that completely anonymous cryptocurrencies will help to resist measures to track citizens. Authorities in many countries are now trying to monitor every person to counter the spread of coronavirus or attempts to make money from the epidemic in an illegal way. "But there should be a limit to everything, "the Agency believes, "personal space should not threatened. The same applies to financial transactions that will not affect the coronavirus or the pandemic in any way. If anonymous cryptocurrencies can replace fiat by at least 10 percent, surveillance will not be effective, which is why government bodies will begin to abandon it."

- According to the head of UnionBank, Edwin Bautista, the transition of the banking sector to cryptocurrency against the background of the coronavirus pandemic looks very realistic. If the situation on the currency market does not stabilize, this measure will be the only one that will save the situation and save the economy. "Now almost all products are paid for online. We may see a period of complete rejection of fiat money in cash. If banks support the initiative of small regulators who already cooperate with cryptocurrency companies, the industry will reach a new level," Bautista believes.

- The management company VanEck Global experts conclude that against the background of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, bitcoin is increasingly correlated with gold. In the short term, this strengthens the cryptocurrency's status as a safe haven asset. "Bitcoin's correlation with gold has reached a level never seen before," VanEck Global said in a report. However, in the long term, this indicator remains quite low. Experts also stress that the correlation of the main cryptocurrency with the value of the US bonds, which traditionally serve as a safe haven for investors during stock market selloffs, has also increased.

- P2p platform Paxful has launched Bitcoin trading for physical gold. Paxful consider their offer unique: no other P2P market gives such an opportunity to use gold as a payment for cryptocurrencies. "In a sense, it is symbolic to trade gold in a pair with its virtual embodiment, Bitcoin," commented CEO of the platform Ray Youssef.

- The analytical company Coinmetrics believes that the current market offer of Bitcoin at 18.3 million coins does not reflect the real liquidity. According to their data, since 2.3 million BTC have been left without movement for more than five years, they are either permanently lost or concentrated in the hands of long-term investors. A similar situation has developed with Bitcoin Cash. After the hard fork in 2017, 6 million BCH were lost sight of, which reduces the real market supply to 12.4 million coins.

- To prevent the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the US largest Bitcoin ATM operator, Bitcoin Depot, has started disabling some of its ATMs. This applies primarily to devices installed in the most crowded places and should help to distance people in the face of the epidemic. "We are monitoring the situation, and the number of ATMs temporarily disconnected from the network is likely to increase," a company representative said. In total, the Bitcoin Depot network has more than 600 bitcoin ATMs in 25 States.

- The Spanish tax Agency (AEAT) notes that the number of taxpayers carrying out transactions with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has increased four times over the year. For the first time, Spanish crypto investors and traders received notifications from the tax service in 2019, and there were 14,700 people at that time. This year, AEAT will send out similar reminders to 66 thousand taxpayers. At the same time, the Agency stressed that the mailing schedule will not be disrupted, despite the raging COVID-19 epidemic in the country.

- Mike Stay, who holds a doctorate in computer science and cryptography, published an article about hacking an encrypted zip file. The latter was very valuable, because it stored the keys to Bitcoin wallets with coins worth $300 thousand at the current exchange rate. He was asked to do this by a client who bought cryptocurrency back in 2016 but forgot the password to the archive with keys. This is one of the rare cases when people manage to "find" their long-forgotten Bitcoins. Passwords are usually irrevocably forgotten, flash drives with keys are accidentally thrown out, and it is only these combinations of characters that connect the crypto investor with their assets.

- Experts are monitoring how North Korea continues to import and export goods despite the fact that numerous sanctions are applied against it. Chainalysis representative Jesse Spiro said in a conversation with CoinDesk that, according to their assumptions, this country uses illegally obtained cryptocurrencies worth $1.5 billion in retail networks and launders stolen money in this way. "The problem of countries that are subject to sanctions is that they need to move money across borders to conduct illegal trade. When it comes to North Korea, there is no doubt that cryptocurrencies are involved."

- The story of buying two pizzas for 10 thousand Bitcoins is not a fiction at all, but a real story that will celebrate its 10th anniversary on May 22, 2020. Its participants are programmer Laszlo Hanich and Papa John’s pizza delivery man Jeremy Sturdivant. Recall that Bitcoin was less than two years old at that time, the price of each coin was only a fraction of a cent, and there was no experience of payments in cryptocurrency at all. And in that situation, a programmer from Florida, Laszlo Hanich, wrote a request on the Bitcointalk forum that read: "I will pay 10,000 bitcoins for a couple of pizzas, say, for a couple of large ones – so that there is some left for the next day as well." The offer was received by Hanich only on the 4th day, and the transaction took place on Internet Relay Chat (IRC). Jeremy Sturdivant agreed to the payment method, delivering two large Papa John’s pizzas to Hanich, costing $25. Today, 10,000 BTC is worth almost $71 million. It is believed that this was the first ever transaction to buy a real product for Bitcoins. 10, 000 BTC are worth more than $ 71 million now and you can buy 5.6 million pizzas with them!


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Old 04-12-2020, 03:56 PM
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 13 - 17, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The Old and the New Worlds continue to compete to see who will pour more money into their economies. But what is the old Europe compared to the United States! On Thursday, April 10, after many days of discussion, the EU Finance Ministers narrowly reached a compromise, concluding a deal on measures to support their countries in the amount of "some" €500 billion. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve announced the launch of another $2.3 trillion support program. At the same time, the Head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said that his Department will most likely not stop there and will do everything in order to restore the US economy as quickly as possible after the epidemic.
Powell is to be trusted in this regard. And the point here is not only the COVID-19, but also that 2020 is the year of the next US Presidential election, and Donald Trump really wants to stay in the White House for a second term. The growth of the US economy has been a major asset in his fight for the presidency.
The unwinding flywheel of the quantitative easing program in the United States could not but put pressure on the dollar, and the USDX index closed trading below the psychological level of 100.0 on April 09. As for the EUR/USD pair, the dollar began to retreat starting from Monday. However, this retreat was not as panicky as in the last week of March, when the pair overcame 510 points. Now the euro has grown by less than 200 points, after which the pair ended the five-day period in the 1.0940 zone, and did not reach the landmark level of 1.1000;

- GBP/USD. The dollar retreated against the pound as well. Besides the above, an additional factor that supported the British currency was the continued growth of borrowing rates in pounds in London and a decrease in borrowing rates in US dollars.
Recall that, giving a forecast for the past week, 20% of analysts had expected the continuation of the sideways trend of the pair in the range of 1.2245-1.2485, and another 30% – its movement from the lower to the upper border of this channel, indicating the level of 1.2475 as resistance. As a result, the overall forecast of these experts turned out to be correct: having failed to fall below the support of 1.2200, the pair turned north and ended the trading session at 1.2470;

- USD/JPY. 60% of analysts had expected this pair to break the 108.70 resistance and the dollar to strengthen to the level of 111.65. The breakthrough occurred, however, the volatility of the Japanese currency was surprisingly low, and the growth of the pair stopped at the height of 109.37, after which it returned to where it started on Monday, to the zone of 108.40;

– cryptocurrencies. Some experts, trying to improve the status of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, convince us that digital gold can become a safe haven for investors on a par with real gold. Thus, specialists of the management company VanEck Global concluded that "the correlation of Bitcoin with gold has reached an unprecedented level" against the background of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Indeed, the quotes of both assets are now growing. The XAU/USD and BTC/USD charts show that since March 16, 2020, the gold has risen by 16%, while Bitcoin has grown by as much as 55%. However, if you move just 4 days and start counting not from March 16, but from March 20, the picture will be completely different: the gold has grown by almost 14%, but the increase in the price of Bitcoin over the past three weeks was equal to ... zero.
This suggests that with its ultra-volatility, bitcoin remains a great tool for short-term speculation. But to use it as a safe haven and, even more so, an object for investment, is still questionable. By the way, analysts from VanEck Global agree with this, noting that they only meant a short period of time. In the long term, the correlation between XAU/USD and BTC/USD remains quite low.
In our previous forecast, we noted that, starting from March 20, the main cryptocurrency is unsuccessfully trying to gain a foothold above the $7,000 level. The past week was no exception. The bulls broke through this resistance on April 06 and even reached the height of $7,440, but they again lost their positions on Friday, and the pair fell to the $6,850-6,900 zone.
As for the total capitalization of the crypto market, it has not changed much over the week and is around $193 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also not changed, it still indicates the presence of strong fear in the market, having risen by just one point over the week, from 14 to 15.
Such top altcoins as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD) followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency, but, in contrast, they were still in the green zone in the afternoon of Friday, April 10, showing a weekly increase from 5% (Litecoin and Ripple) to 10% (Ethereum).


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