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  #271 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2020, 03:19 PM
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 13-17, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As you know, life is like a zebra: a black stripe comes after a white one, and vice versa. That was what happened this time as well: after the merry New Year holidays came the anxious expectation of a full-fledged war between the United States and Iran. But, a few days later it became clear that both sides want to avoid a full-fledged conflict, and the tension in the geopolitical field went gradually down, which is clearly visible in the oil prices.
Last week, everything went well for the US dollar at first. The US currency was growing thanks to new record highs in the US stock market and optimistic statements of the Fed's leaders. So, the President of the Federal reserve of Richmond Thomas Barkin said that the country's economy and the labor market in the United States looked strong. And according to Fed Vice President Richard Clarida, the current monetary policy of his organization is fully consistent with the state of the country's economy. According to forecasts, US GDP growth in 2020 may be 2-2.5%, or even more.
Up until Friday, January 10, the dollar was growing in anticipation of strong data from the US labor market. As a result, as expected by 45% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, the EUR/USD pair fell to the support of 1.1100, and then by another 15 points. But the data on the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) disappointed the market so strongly (a drop of 43%) that the pair turned sharply north, jumping to the height of 1.1130. It met the end of the trading session at the level of 1.1120;

- GBP/USD. For the third week in a row, the result for the British pound is close to zero. Starting from the horizon of 1.3075, by Tuesday January 07, it reached the height of 1.3210, then fell to the support of 1.3010, turned around again and finished the five-day period at 1.3060, losing only 15 points during this time. However, as before, due to its rather high volatility, the pair did not deprive traders of the opportunity to earn: the weekly scope of its fluctuations amounted to 200 points;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair was 100% accurate. Recall that, in the opinion of the majority of analysts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, the pair's drop had to stop at the level of 107.80, having rebounced from which it was supposed to go to the 109.25 resistance, and then to the last December highs in the area of 109.70.
In reality, on Monday, January 06, the pair found the bottom at 107.76, turned around and went up. On Wednesday, the yen made another attempt to gain a foothold below the level of 107.00, however, it was unsuccessful as well, and by the end of the week, the pair, as expected by experts, reached the set height of 109.70. This was followed by a small correction, and the final chord sounded at the level of 109.50;

– cryptocurrencies. Indeed, it seems that a number of investors are considering Bitcoin as a financial haven. So, against the background of the confrontation between the US and Iran, the reference cryptocurrency reached a month-and-a-half high, breaking some important resistance levels. Fake information about a sharp increase in the capitalization of stablecoin Tether (USDT) on CoinMarketCap by $500 million also contributed to the growth. As a result, the cost of BTC soared to the height of $8,450 per coin.
The analysis of what happened last week suggests that the crypto market quotes begin to be increasingly influenced by algorithmic trading. Reacting only to the momentum of the price, which in this case was up, the robots began buying coins, giving an additional force to this momentum.
Soon after it became known about the reduction of tension around Iran, and that the information about $500 million is just a fake, the price of Bitcoin went down, dropping to $7,765, then went up again, reaching the height of $8,100 by the evening of Friday, January 10.
As a result of these events, the growth of Bitcoin, starting from January 03, was at a maximum of about 17%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – the same 17%, Ripple (XRP/USD) – 22%, and Litecoin (LTC/USD) - 27%. At the same time, the total capitalization increased by 10%, and the Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index is another three points closer to its neutral position, reaching 41.


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  #272 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2020, 03:20 PM
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved on an upward channel. On December 31, it reached its upper limit at 1.1240, and then changed direction, opening the year 2020 with a gap down. On January 08, it broke through the lower border of the channel at the level of 1.1125, but due to negative data on the labor market in the United States, the bears could not consolidate their success, and the pair finished the week session almost at the level of the breakdown.
Will it return to the limits of the ascending channel? 60% of experts do not think so. In their opinion, the dollar will continue to strengthen, and the pair is expected to decline to the zone of 1.1040-1.1065, the next goal is 1.1000. Graphical analysis on H4 and the majority (70%) of trend indicators on D1 agree with this development. The readings of trend indicators on H4 and oscillators on H4 and D1 can be considered neutral at the moment.
According to the forecasts of the remaining 40% of analysts, the EUR/USD pair will not be able to break through the support at the level of 1.1100, and it will return at least to the central line of the ascending channel, which will be in the zone of 1.1240.
Of course, the trends of the coming week may be affected by the escalation of tension around Iran. But no extra surprises should probably not be expected from the publication of macroeconomic indicators. On Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, data on the US consumer market will be published. On January 16, we will also learn the values of the German HICP consumer price index, which is projected to remain unchanged. The report on the ECB's monetary policy meeting may be more interesting, it will also be published on Thursday 16 January;

- GBP/USD. The UK is less than three weeks away from parting with the European Union. According to Bloomberg, to date, Brexit has already cost the country $170 billion, and by the end of 2020, London will lose another $90 billion. The annual economic growth has halved from 2% to 1%. The British economy is now 3% smaller than it could be if the relations with the EU had remained at the same level. The UK economy is lagging behind the G7 countries and, according to some economists, it has a long way to recover.
In the near future, the pound is highly likely to still move in a fairly wide side channel 1.2900-1.3200 with a Pivot Point in the zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the same time, according to 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of indicators on H4 and D1, the pair will continue to move to its lower border in the coming week. Supports are 1.3010, 1.2970 and 1.2900.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair, on the contrary, will break away from the central zone and is likely to reach the December 31, 2019 high at the height of 1.3285. According to the indications of graphical analysis, it may take about four or five days, after which it will return to the Pivot Point;

- USD/JPY. Last week, the pair not only returned to the borders of the medium-term side channel 108.40-109.70, but also reached its upper border. Although 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators are colored green, only 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to rise to the height of 110.70. The majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, as well as 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, signaling the pair is overbought. Supports are109.20, 108.75 and 108.40. Reaching the last week's lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. We have already written that, according to TradeBlock, only 30% of BTC coins in 2019 were in motion. The remaining 70% are in wallets in a "frozen" state. Similar figures were received by Delphi Digital. According to its data, at least 59% of bitcoins purchased in the second half of 2017 have not moved anywhere. That is, their holders did not sell their cryptocurrency even in December 2017, when BTC soared to $20,000 on some trading platforms. Such data suggests that a stable layer of so-called holders has formed in the cryptosphere, who do not part with their coins even when the market is growing aggressively.
Perhaps they are waiting for 2040, when, according to the calculations of Benjamin Cowen, the price of Bitcoin can reach $1 million. According to Cowen, the history of the main cryptocurrency price shows that the market cycles are getting longer: it took 2.5 years to reach the first peak and 4 years to reach the second peak. Extrapolating the model of logarithmic regression to the price of Bitcoin, the expert suggests that it would take about 5.5 years to reach the next peak (after the peak of December 2017), and in 2023 the price of Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark. And the Bitcoin of $1mln cannot be earlier than 2040.
At the same time, of course, there is another opinion, according to which, under pressure from regulators, Bitcoin will go into oblivion, and it will be replaced by state and regional digital money. The ECB has started thinking about developing its own cryptocurrency, the BRICS countries are contemplating a single cryptocurrency and the Bank for International settlements has already held the first summit of G20 Central bankers, which discussed the idea of a global cryptocurrency.
But all this is a matter of the distant future. In the meantime, the highs and lows of the past week allow us to say that the BTC/USD pair has moved to a new level of $7,765-8,450 with a Pivot Point in the $8,000-8,100 zone. At the same time, only 30% of analysts believe that it will be able to stay in this corridor, while 70% expect it to fall to the $7,000-7,500 zone.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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  #273 (permalink)  
Old 01-19-2020, 02:28 AM
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 20 - 24, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Starting from November 29, 2019, the pair moved along the ascending channel. On December 31, it reached the upper limit of the channel at 1.1240, and then changed direction and on January 08, it broke through the lower limit of the channel at 1.1225. "Will it return to its limits?"– we asked this question last week, to which the majority of experts (60%) answered with a firm "no". And they turned out to be right: Until Thursday, January 16, the bulls tried to do this, but then their strength weakened, and the pair went down sharply.
Even the signing of the "first phase" trade agreement between the US and China did not help the bulls. According to this document, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of American goods and services by about $200 billion in the next two years, and Washington, for its part, promised to lower the duty on Chinese imports worth $120 billion to 7.5% and not introduce new fees.
It should be noted that, in general, this event had already been taken into account by the markets, but still caused a further increase in the US stock indexes and a slight decline in the dollar. Investors continued to reform assets, preferring shares rather than money.
However, the fall of the dollar and the EUR/USD pair was soon stopped due to the publication of the December ECB meeting minutes and the retail sales data in the United States.
In the first case, the management of the European mega-regulator announced that it is not going to raise the key interest rate until the inflation approaches the 2% mark. Moreover, the ECB did not rule out the possibility of moving the rate from the current zero level to the negative zone. As for the second factor, the retail trade volume in the United States increased from -0.1% to + 0.5%, and, as you know, consumer spending accounts for more than 65% of the US GDP. As a result, the euro began to lose its positions against the dollar, and the pair ended the trading session in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of 1.1100, at the level of 1.1090;

- GBP/USD. This pair showed similar dynamics to the EUR/USD, but, as usual, with a much larger scale. So, if the difference between the week low and high for the EUR/USD was just over 85 points, this value was twice as high for the British currency.
The active sale of the pound on January 17 was caused by the report on the UK retail sales for December. The monthly indicator was in the negative area, and the annual indicator was three times less than the forecast value. As a result, at the end of the week, the pound fell to the January 09 low, and ended the five-day period at 1.3015 - exactly where, according to most experts, the medium-term Pivot Point (1.3000-1.3050) of this pair is located;

- USD/JPY. 25% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators, voted for the pair to rise to the level of 110.70. It did go up, but the pair's growth was stopped at 110.30. Despite the fact that the yen lost only about 80 points to the dollar during the week, this can be considered a significant event, since it overcame the psychologically important level of 110.00. Recall that after passing the mark of 29.000, the Dow Jones index confidently went up, and it is possible that the same thing will happen with the USD/JPY pair;

– cryptocurrencies. Every Wednesday, analysts of NordFX brokerage company publish weekly reviews of the cryptocurrency market on NordFX's Facebook page, Twitter channel, and other social networks. In another such review on Wednesday, January 15, it was suggested that the cost of BTC in February has all the chances to rise to the level of 9,5 thousand dollars. Increased correlation with gold as well as various external factors will allow the main coin to add at least $1000 per month. Among these factors, first of all, the use of bitcoin as a safe haven asset should be noted. A clear proof of this phenomenon was the growth of the main cryptocurrency against the background of escalating tensions around Iran.
On Tuesday last week, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced the successful launch of a new financial instrument, the option for Bitcoin, which allowed the BTC/USD quotes to reach a landmark level of $9,000 on Friday, January 17. Thus, the pair's growth over the past two weeks has exceeded 22%.
Altcoins also soared in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. Ripple (XRP/USD) showed an increase of 25%, Ethereum (ETH/USD) – 30%, and the most impressive was the strengthening of Litecoin (LTC/USD): its growth was about 50%. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 14.5% and reached $245 billion.


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Old 01-19-2020, 02:29 AM
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. For three weeks in a row, the pair is moving down, the euro has fallen by about 240 points. The vast majority of indicators are now red not only on H4, but also on D1. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south. The nearest support is 1.1065, the bears' target is 1.1000.
At the same time, some of the oscillators already give active signals about the pair being oversold. 60% of experts also look up. In their opinion, the pair will try once again to return to the limits of the medium-term ascending channel, which started in early December 2019. The nearest resistance is 1.1150. The targets are 1.1200 and 1.1240; The pair's growth may be helped by the outflow of capital to the stock market, provoked by the decline in tensions in trade relations between the US and China. This reduced the probability of a recession in the United States to 24%, which is the lowest rate in the last eight months.
Monday, January 20, is a day off in the United States, but it is at this time that the People's Bank of China will announce its decision on the interest rate, which is currently 4.15%. In addition, other events are of interest. On Tuesday, January 21, the German business sentiment Index will be published. According to forecasts, it may fall from 10.7 to 4.3 units, which may lead to some weakening of the European currency. On Thursday, the ECB's decision on the interest rate will be announced, and a press conference of the European regulator's management will also be held. And on Friday, January 24, we are waiting for a whole series of publications of estimated indicators of business activity both in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole;

- GBP/USD. Two macro indicators will help to assess the state of the UK economy, such as the ILO unemployment rate, which will be released on Tuesday, and the Markit business activity index, being published on Friday 24 January. However, in the run-up to the upcoming Brexit, they are unlikely to have a serious impact on the formation of trends for this pair.
The pair finished the previous week in the mid-term Pivot Point zone 1.3000-1.3050. At the time of writing the forecast, just as in the case of the euro, 60% of experts expect the pair to grow, 40% – to fall. Indicators, especially oscillators, look very versatile. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates first the pair's growth to the level of 1.3120, and then a fall to the horizon of 1.2770.
Support levels are 1.2955, 1.2900, 1.2825 and 1.2770. Resistance levels are 1.3120, 1.3210 and 1.3285;

- USD/JPY. Here, everything points to a slight advantage of the bulls, who will try to keep the pair above the 110.00 mark and move it as high as possible from this border. Thus, 55% of analysts, 70% of oscillators, 95% of trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1 indicate a gradual growth of the pair. The nearest strong resistance level is 110.75, and the next one is 100 points higher.
15% of experts have given a neutral forecast, and 30% have voted for the fall of the pair. The largest number of signals about the pair being overbought have been given by oscillators on D1. The main support level is 109.70. If it breaks, the pair may fall to the zone of 109.00, and then to the horizon of 108.40. Reaching the January 06-08 lows in the 107.65-107.75 zone is still unlikely;

– cryptocurrencies. Finally, it happened: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has crossed the equator and risen to 54, approaching the zone called "Greed". Is it good or bad? According to the index developers, it can be dangerous to open short positions at this moment. And what about the long ones?
65% of analysts believe that the upward momentum of the BTC/USD pair has not yet been exhausted and it is able to gain a foothold in the $9,000-10,000 zone.
An alternative point of view is supported by 35% of experts. Agreeing that the situation is somewhat similar to 2017, they draw attention to the fact that, starting from June 2019, we are seeing a series of decreasing highs: $13,765 on June 26, $13,170 on July 10, $12,320 on August 06, $10,480 on October 26. And it is possible that $9,000 will be the next local high, followed by another collapse.
But for now, the market is full of optimism, and the predictions of all sorts of crypto enthusiasts are breaking all thinkable and unthinkable records. The most modest is the forecast of the analytical firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, which has stated that in the coming year, Bitcoin is highly likely to bring investors more than 100% of profits. According to the Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, the most important factors that will contribute to the growth of the price of the first cryptocurrency are halving, geopolitical risks and the US presidential election.
The most "space" forecast was given by Blockstream CEO Adam Back. He is convinced that the dreams of Bitcoin worth $100 thousand and even $10 million are not so far from reality. Back has commented on the idea of one of the leading representatives of the cypherpunk movement, Hal Finney, who is historically considered the second developer of Bitcoin, after Satoshi Nakamoto. Finney suggested "as a thinking experiment" to imagine that Bitcoin has become the dominant payment system in the world. "The total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the world's wealth. Current estimates of household assets around the world that I have found range from $100 to $ 300 trillion. If there are 20 million coins, the value of each of them will be about $10 million, " Finney wrote. Beck noted that due to the rising dollar inflation, " this is closer than it seems." But the crypto prophet did not specify how much closer.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

https://nordfx.com/
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Old Yesterday, 04:40 AM
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Copy Trading: One More NordFX Service for Profitable Trading and Investing


The broker company NordFX has offered its clients one more opportunity for profitable trading and investment in the financial markets in 2020: Copy Trading service.


Copy Trading is a simple and clear type of social trading in which transactions from the signal provider's account are automatically copied to the subscriber's account. This service allows experienced traders to make additional profit by selling their trading signals, and for beginners - by copying them. It is also suitable for those who are interested in passive investment in financial markets, since it does not require any independent trading experience or any serious time costs.

You can select a signal provider using full statistical information and online monitoring data for more than 30 parameters. At the same time, the obvious advantage of Copy Trading is that subscribers have full control over their accounts. At any time, the subscriber can close one or more copied trades, stop subscribing to signals, and simultaneously conduct independent trading on this account. In addition, the subscriber can adjust the copied transactions in accordance with the available funds and the desired risk/return ratio.

The advantage is also the fact that the subscriber pays the provider a fee only for profitable transactions and only for the total profit for the entire copying period.

The new service allows you to make and copy trades using the entire range of trading tools available in NordFX on a standard Pro account, including Forex currency pairs, cryptocurrencies, gold, silver, oil, and major stock indices.

Transactions are copied even when the terminal is turned off, and the subscriber does not need to keep the computer turned on 24 hours a day or spend money on renting a VPS server.

You can learn more about the work of the Copy Trading service, become a subscriber or a signal provider through your personal account on the broker's official website.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #forex #forexbrokers #copytrading #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #signaltek

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  #276 (permalink)  
Old Yesterday, 02:28 PM
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 27 - 31, 2020


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The euro is falling again, and it has lost about 70 points to the dollar over the past five days. There are two reasons for this: the coronavirus epidemic in China and the very cautious new ECB Head Christine Lagarde.
It is well known that the Eurozone economy is strongly correlated with the Chinese economy, as has recently been demonstrated by the trade wars. And if the economy of China is sick, then the European one is also experiencing a strong malaise. In 2003, a pandemic in China killed more than 700 people and caused retail sales to fall by almost half. But despite the fact that the new virus is considered less dangerous, it can now spread much faster than at the beginning of the century. The reason for this is the infrastructure of China, which has become much more developed during this time. Oil prices were the first to react to the new attack, but the foreign exchange market was not long in reacting.
As for Ms. Lagarde, she really disappointed investors, saying that the revision of the ECB's strategy is a long process that will only be completed by the end of 2020. Moreover, against the background of the US President Trump's warnings about the possible introduction of increased duties on European exports, Ms. Lagarde considered that "the risks for the euro zone are still skewed towards the decline of the economy." And so the European regulator will have to maintain an ultra-soft approach to its monetary policy.
Against the background of such statements by the head of the ECB and the Chinese epidemic, even favorable data on business activity in Germany (PMI) did not help the euro, and the EUR/USD pair fell to the level of 1.1020 by the end of the week. Last week, 40% of experts and the absolute majority of indicators warned that it would attack the 1.1000 level. Among the oscillators on H4 there are 75% of them, on D1 – 65%, among the trend indicators, 100% on H4 and 90% on D1 point to the south.

- GBP/USD. Thanks to the growth of business activity (PMI) on Friday, January 24, the British currency reached a two-week high at 1.3172, but then went down again. Expectations of an interest rate cut at the Bank of England meeting on January 30, as well as the same notorious Chinese coronavirus, contributed to the fall.
The dynamics of the movement of the GBP/USD pair was most accurately predicted last week by graphical analysis. As for the final chord, the pair ended the trading session at 1.3080, slightly correcting the mid-term Pivot Point zone in the upward direction - to the range of 1.3050-1.3085;

- USD/JPY. According to some experts, the extremely low volatility of the EUR/USD pair indicates that a certain balance has been established between these two major currencies. And now the euro and the dollar are in the balance on the one hand, and emerging market currencies and stocks on the other. And these markets, especially those of neighboring countries, may be particularly affected by the crisis caused by the spread of the Chinese coronavirus.
As it turned out, the yen gained the most from such anxious but vague expectations, being a safe haven that can shelter investors' capital from unpredictable financial storms. A third of the experts who voted for the fall of the pair, and even more so the oscillators that gave signals about its overbought, could not know about the coronavirus pandemic, but, nevertheless, gave the correct forecast. The pair quickly turned the support of 109.65-109.70 into resistance, and then found a local bottom at the level of 109.17. As for the end of the trading session, it finished it very close, at the level of 109.27;

– cryptocurrencies. If someone dreamed of cryptocurrencies as an independent and free from state control financial system, they could forget about it. Just one example. The Minister of Finance of Ukraine announced that the state financial monitoring service will investigate where the citizens of this country got the cryptocurrency from. According to the Minister, the tools available to this organization allow them to determine both the origin of digital assets and what they were spent on. Moreover, this service has the authority to block cryptocurrencies and seize assets illegally obtained by Ukrainian citizens.
It is clear that this news did not contribute to the fall of Bitcoin, but the fact remains that the reference cryptocurrency could not gain a foothold above $9,000 and on Friday, January 24, it fell to the $8,250-8,450 zone.
According to some experts, what is to blame for this fall... is the Chinese New Year. Comparing the results of trading in this period over the past few years, they noted that the risk of a drawdown of the main coin is present even against the background of the overall growth dynamics. According to their calculations, in Asia, about 10 percent of residents have savings in cryptocurrency. And before the New Year, they start cashing in assets and spending money on gifts and holiday parties.
Altcoins: Ethereum (ETH/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD) and Ripple (XRP/USD), as usual, followed in the wake of the main cryptocurrency. The total capitalization of the crypto market decreased from $251 to $236 billion.


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Old Yesterday, 02:29 PM
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As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As already mentioned, for the ECB, a weak euro is now preferable to a strong one. Realizing this, the bulls do not want to take risks, which makes the European currency even weaker. Its nearest target in the downtrend is 1.1000, followed by 1.0960. This is followed by the low of October 01, 2019 -1.0880. 55% of analysts now vote for the fall, supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators not only on H4 and D1, but also on W1.
The opposite view is expressed by 45% of experts and 15% of oscillators in the oversold zone. Moreover, when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the number of bull supporters increases to 70%. The immediate task is to overcome the strong resistance in the 1.1065 zone, followed by the 1.1100 and 1.1175 resistances.
As for the Fed's decision on the interest rate on January 29, it is likely that it will remain at the same level – 1.75%, and this meeting will not have much impact on the dynamics of the pair;

- GBP/USD. Done! Here it is, the X day, Friday 31 January, which will be followed by the UK's farewell to the European Union. Brexit, which everyone has been talking about for so long, can be considered accomplished. However, we think that at the moment this event will put more moral pressure on the market – the relatively smooth process of the country's exit from the EU significantly reduces investment risks. Moreover, the current low rate of the pound helps the British economy in many ways, strengthening its competitiveness in foreign markets.
If there are no unexpected unpleasant surprises from Brexit, the pound may feel relatively calm. And it is not excluded that it will grow not only against the euro, but also against the dollar. So, 65% of experts expect it to move north - first to the resistance of 1.3160, and then to the height of 1.3200.
An alternative forecast is given by 35% of experts, according to whom the GBP/USD pair is expected to fall further. This scenario is especially likely if the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, January 30, gives at least a hint of a possible interest rate cut. In this case, the British currency has every chance to continue its journey to the south, in which, after breaking through the supports of 1.3040, 1.3000 and 1.2960, it can reach the lows of last December in the 1.2900 zone. Graphic analysis on D1 actively supports this development;

- USD/JPY. There is some confusion among the indicators, but 10% of the oscillators are already giving clear signals that this pair is oversold. 60% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1 believe that it will stop falling as well. The goal is to rise to the zone 110.20-110.30. The next resistance is at 110.80;
The remaining 40% of experts side with the bears, who believe that the downward trend of the past week will continue. The Dow Jones index is aiming for 30.000, and the USD/JPY pair should break through the 109 mark, which will lead to further losses for all cross-pairs related to the Japanese currency. The main support is at 108.40, the next one is 60 points lower;

– cryptocurrencies. Along with the fall of the main cryptocurrency, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also fell slightly down, from 54 to 40. This is not yet a fear of the market, but investors are no longer particularly attracted to opening long positions.
Even some of the crypto prophets have tempered their appetites. In a recent tweet, trader and crypto analyst Josh Rager expressed the opinion that, as in other markets, Bitcoin has a "law of decreasing the rate of return", and there is a decrease in its profitability in each cycle. "The next Bitcoin maximum will not be as high as most people think. Some point to $100,000, $300,000, and $1 million. One should also take into account the decrease in the profit margin by about 20% in each cycle. Therefore, I think the next high will be in the range of $75,000 to $85,000," the analyst wrote. Rager's position on this issue was also supported by the cryptocurrency analytical company ByteTree.
If we talk about forecasts for the near future, they are not so optimistic. 50% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to fall to the $7,500-8,000 zone, 30% voted for a sideways trend and only 20%¬ - for the pair to rise above the $9,000 horizon. However, when switching to the monthly forecast, the number of crypto optimists increases to 70%.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

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