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Old 07-06-2014, 09:23 PM
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Dear all forum users!

As you already know, TradeFort company obtained an international license IFSC/60/256/TS/14.

Due to that fact, TradeFort has successfully re-branded and since 29th of June works under a Fort Financial Services brand. We have tried to maximally improve our fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets.

We hope, that you will appreciate the analysis we provide. We are looking forward to hear your comments and suggestions.

Thank you for working with TradeFort and welcome to the international brokerage Fort Financial Services!


Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading

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Old 07-07-2014, 12:41 AM
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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

07.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The last week end was very rich on the macroeconomic statistics. The EUR/USD came under pressure amid the positive macroeconomic data from the United States. The Non-Farm index came significantly better forecasted medians at 288 thousand, besides the upwards revised data for May and April. The overall unemployment rate was also declined by 0.2% to 6.1%, as the hourly wages were increased by 0.2%. Such the strong data point us to a strong U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and now the Fed should decrease pessimism about the prospects for economic development.

The single European currency selling was caused by ECB President Mario Draghi, who said that the low interest rates in the euro area would remain for a long time. As a result, "bears" took control under the situation.

After the negative data publication on the service sector PMI index for the UK in June the investors decided to take profits on long positions. However, we saw a strong decrease in the GBP/USD on Thursday. Despite the positive statistics from the U.S. labor market - the "Bears" were able to push quotes only to the level of 1.7104, after which there was a technical rebound. Sales in the euro / pound cross - course, which set a fresh level for at least the past 20 months, were supported by demand for the British currency against U.S. dollar.

The "Bulls" have made triumph on the USD/JPY for three consecutive days. The positive release non-farm cheered the participants to open the long dollar positions. Against this backdrop, the dollar/yen was able to overcome the figure 102 and consolidate above the resistance level of 102.16.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

The single European currency has collapsed against the dollar as it was under the double pressure. Less strong impact on the euro was provoked by the M. Draghi statements that the regulator is ready for the "unconventional measures" if it appears that the annual inflation rate in the euro area will remain at a low level more than it was expected. The second pressure source had a much stronger impact – the information about the strong jobs growth in the U.S. labor market has caused the European currency sharp falling.

The sellers managed to break below the rising trend line of 1.3610 at the high volume and thereby exit the uplink direction in which the trade lasted four weeks.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

We have a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downwards. The cloud has stooped growing and is changing the direction.

The downward movement will be until the price is below the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 1.3570. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 1.3520.



Pound (GBP)

The British pound continues to demonstrate its stability and maintains its position near the high levels reached earlier. The latest news impacted the currency. However, the pressure on sterling was of transient nature and as a result the "cable" closed the trading against the dollar by the almost opening prices - with only minor losses.

Currently, the price is trading above intermediate resistance level of 1.7165, which is now managed to break up. Together with the level breakthrough the buyers failed to update this week maximum level of 1.7177

The price is finding the first support at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7115. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7220, the next one is at 1.7265.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is horizontal, the Tenkan-Sen is directed upwards. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 1.7220. We do not exclude a corrective bounce to 1.7115.

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Old 07-07-2014, 12:42 AM
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Yen (JPY)

The Japanese currency showed the strongest fall against the dollar among majors. The messages from the U.S. labor market helped the pair to overcome the strong technical resistance levels to rise almost to the previous month maximum. In terms of prospects the yen decrease will be resumed under the U.S. statistics impressions influence.

The key turning moment was the downward trend line breakout of 101.95. The trend break occurred at the volume that in the longer term points toward the continued growth.

The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23.

The price is above the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Tenkan-Sen is directed upwards, the Kijun-Sen is horizontal. The cloud is directed upward.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.

Trading recommendations

The break of 101.90 was at high volumes, this break opens the way to the next resistance located at 102.70. Still we believe there will be the roll backs to 101.60.



Franc (CHF)

The manufacturing sector activity expansion continued in Switzerland in June, as it showed the report prepared by Credit Suisse. The analysts attribute the activity increase with export sales, which are supported by the regulation of the euro against the franc by the SNB.

The U.S. June labor report publication supported the dollar, pushing it to grow. The U.S. Department of Labor message was clearly encouraging for the "bulls" on the dollar. The Non Farms increased by 288 thousand in June, not by 215 thousand as was expected, and the results of May and April were revised upwards to 224 thousand from 217 thousand and 304 thousand against 282 thousand, respectively. The unemployment level fell in June, despite the fact that this parameter changes were not expected.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8880. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

The price is in the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, we have a weak buy signal.

The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.

MACD is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend to long to 0.8950.




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Old 07-07-2014, 10:36 PM
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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

The Euro market is in a narrow range against the liquidity backdrop. From the published macroeconomic statistics we can highlight only the orders volume in the German industry. The index went much worse forecasted medians at - 1.7% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in the capacity utilization. This in turn is a negative factor for the European region as Germany is the Eurozone locomotive.

The business activity index in the Germany construction sector in June fell to 15-month low which was due mainly to a fall in new orders. The ECB representative Noyer said that the ECB was ready to take all necessary measures to achieve the inflation level of 2%.

The most important event in the USA will be the last Fed meeting protocols publication on Wednesday.

The sales in the EUR/GBP cross-course support demand for GBP/USD not allowing the "bears" to take a technical correction to the short-term overbought background. After the British currency price drop to around of 1.7030 last week - the "bulls" are back on the market and are willing to open long positions.

The investors took profits in global equity markets after a sharp rise during the week. In this regard as well, we have seen the partial long positions closing on the USD/JPY, which led to a small correction after upside quotations growth for 3 days in a row.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Last week session the euro selling was continued, as the single currency recorded losses against the "greenback", while were less ambitious than the previous day. Obviously, the emotions caused by the U.S. Labor Market report publication already influenced the euro/dollar rates and the ECB M. Draghi statements that the preparations for the quantitative easing is underway launch work now. This may cause the unconventional measures introduction to stimulate the economy and, consequently, influence a prolonged impact on the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is directed downwards.

The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.3610. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.3570 that could lead to the south trendline movement.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound continues to show a resistance to all the news coming from the outside market. Last Friday the sterling closed trading on opening prices against the dollar after a multidirectional consolidation in a narrow range. The pound support continued to provide good results for the economy, as evidenced by activity indicators, published on the week. PMI in all economy sectors - manufacturing, construction and services, had recognized that recovery, as new construction recorded a growth spurt.

The British Pound continues to actively grow up, breaking on its way the temporary resistance. At this point, such resistance is represented by the inclined line of 1.7125, above there is an ongoing auction.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels 1.7200, 1.7250.

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Old 07-07-2014, 10:49 PM
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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair is being traded lowering. Obviously, the other day of the U.S. long weekend the short-term investors decided to take profits and even a slight increase in the Nikkei index didn’t push the market to the increase the propensity to take risks. The dollar/yen is likely to grow due to the Central Bank policies polarity of these countries, and also in the "hawkish" statements character from the Fed leaders

The trading is within rectangle levels of 101.30 - 102.70. Another approach to the strong support level of 101.30, which for the six months was knocked the price upwards was fallowed by a bounce.

The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.60.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations


The volumes are decreasing not supporting neither northern nor southern movement. If the buyers get to the mark 102.70 at low volumes we expect a consolidation with a further price bounce upwards.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase. The pair will stay with the support of a positive attitude to the dollar and the market demand for the Swiss currency in the growing euro/franc and declining franc/yen. We expect the June data on unemployment in Switzerland and Swiss National Bank gold reserves.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.8975. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9000.



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Old 07-08-2014, 10:52 PM
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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

This week the EUR/USD is within a narrow range 1.3575-1.3608. The industrial production releases in Germany and Spain in May showed a significant decrease that confirms the serious structural problems in the European region. Nevertheless, the euro ignored the weak reports and after a moderate price drop - after the American traders coming we saw a technical rebound.

The 10-year bonds yields fell on Monday from 2.64% to 2.62%. Meanwhile, the employment trends index (ETI) in the U.S. Conference Board's continued the growth in June for the second month in a row and rose to 119.62.

The euro rose slightly after four days decrease amid the growing sentiment among the Eurozone investors, who improved after two months decrease, which was due to the ECB's new measures on the economy stimulation and expectations improving for the global economy.

The short positions closing in the euro/pound cross-course put the pressure on the GBP/USD on a background of the empty macroeconomic calendar from the UK and the U.S.

The sales that were observed on the world's leading stock markets, which together with the decrease in the 10-year U.S. bonds yields weighed on the USD/JPY. There wasn’t any important macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the market participant fully copied the trading dynamics for the Japanese stock market.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The single European currency grew slightly against the dollar and actually leveled losses it had last week. The weak economic data from Germany did not stop the euro bulls and as well as the ECB members statements signaling the need to increase the monetary policy easing.

Almost a month the EUR/USD bounces from the level of 1.3595. This level was broken down once, but the breakthrough had not been continued for long. The reverse return above the price level was followed by a strong growth.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.

Trading recommendations

The downtrend is being continued. The target is 1.3570.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The pound is stable and continues to stay near the high levels that had been reached earlier. The pound fell slightly the other day, but it is due to technical factors that continue to influence the market developments through the strong resistance.

The upward trend was stopped at the resistance level of 1.7175, from which there was a short-term price down pullback. The main rollback target is the support level of 1.7115, which was twice tested for a strength.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The rising trend line is at 1.7115 support that is an additional obstacle.

If the breakthrough does happen the level of 1.7175 rebound is expected. The 1.7175 break will open the way to 1.7200, 1.7250.

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Old 07-08-2014, 10:54 PM
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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The yen grew up. Obviously, the fact that traders chose the yen was due to an optimism fall on stock markets, as well as due to the U.S. "Treasuries" yield decrease. We remember the BoJ quarterly report, which announced a moderate economic recovery pace and conservation assessment for the all nine country regions.

The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The price consolidation at 101.60 is a good sign for the price upward rebound. The main target is the level of 101.23.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The franc has not changed significantly against the U.S. dollar and strengthened against the major currencies last week after the unexpectedly strong labor market data. The dollar slightly regained its position against the franc after the pair decreased to the level of 0.8860.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise long positions. The goal is 0.8975. After overcoming the first target buyers can go to the level of 0.9000.



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Old 07-11-2014, 01:31 PM
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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

This week main event was the Fed last meeting minutes publication. Before the Fed minutes publication the major pairs were in a lateral trend – the investors took a waiting position. The market participants wondered what the inflation debate will bring which had shown a slightly growth above the target level in the last report. However, the FOMC members could not find a single direction on the priority issue - one part of the monetary regulator leadership expressed concern with a stable low inflation, the other on the contrary, expect a more rapid consumer price index growth.

Against this background, we observed the U.S. currency sales against its major competitors, the gold quotations growth and the "bullish" sentiment in the stock markets.

The data showed an unexpected decrease in the UK industrial manufacturing and the industrial production and hinted that the economic recovery may not be as strong as expected. The reports made investors get rid of sterling to lock in profits after the currency rose to six-year high level against the U.S. dollar at the end of last week.

The quotes received impetus from the Japan data published during the Asian session.

The positive Japan payments balance in May amounted to 552.8 billion yen after the April value of 187.4 billion yen, despite the fact that the growth was forecasted only to 170 billion Japanese yen. Some support was rendered by the Eco Watchers data: the optimism index regarding the current economic situation in Japan was in June $ 47.7 against $ 45.5 in May, which can generally be seen as a positive signal.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The important economic data from Europe and other regions absence, as well as minutes of U.S. meetings yield expectations caused the continued range trading on the euro/dollar. The hopes that the activity will return to the market amid the politicians speeches have not been justified - neither speech the ECB’s President Draghi nor his colleagues, members of the ECB Governing Board B. Kerr and P. Pratt did not change the situation. The ECB functionary's statements concerned largely the power centralization topics in the region and its authority strengthening to force EU governments to reform their economies to recovery.

The situation has been changed after the FOMC minutes publication - the euro rose as it became known that the document did not have anything about a possible rate increase.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form the “Golden cross”.

The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

If the price consolidates above 1.3610 the next target will be the resistance located at 1.3670.



Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound strengthened against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The effect on the sterling as well as on the euro had a message from the Fed. During the session the pound was under pressure from the dollar. The pound sales were provoked by the housing prices data from Halifax which showed that the price index fell by 0.6% m/m in June after rising +4.0% m/m previously and Britain Retail Consortium (BRC) report announced the annual fall indicator retail prices continuation which coupled with the price dynamics in the housing market has contributed to the doubt mood, waiting the rate hikes in the UK.

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span.

The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.

The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

The sterling growth gave the buyers the opportunity to get closer to the last week maximum the resistance of 1.7160. The volumes around this level decline, however, due to the fundamental data, the northern trend is likely to continue.

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Old 07-11-2014, 01:33 PM
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Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese currency was under the general market sentiment pressure. Initially, the yen declined against the dollar, on the risks of a monetary policy possible imminent tightening in the U.S., and then grew when the Fed protocols disappointed "bulls" on the dollar and sharply reduced the U.S. "Treasuries" yields. As a result, the dollar/yen trading was closed almost on the opening prices.

The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price shows a downward movement.

Trading recommendations

The yen strengthening against the greenback is expected in the short term, lowering the price to 101.00 - 101.20.



Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar on the U.S. currency general weakening, caused by the FOMC minutes publication. The document, in particular, noted that, if the current trends is preserved the economy the FOMC representatives would decide to finish the asset purchases program in October.

The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.

There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We advise to open short positions with the target 0. 8880. This level overcoming will enable sellers to target the level of 0.8850.



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Old 07-16-2014, 10:43 PM
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"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.07.2014

Fundamental analysis

We could see the multidirectional majors movement the other day. The negative ZEW business climate release in Germany coupled with euro/pound cross-course sales cheered the "bears" to open the short positions on the EUR/USD.

The ZEW index fell to 27.1 points in July, showing the lowest level since December 2012. If the investors and analysts look pessimistic at the eurozone's leading economy it means that the region problems are really strong. In the U.S. trading session midst Fed head held the speech in Congress. Janet Yellen still adheres to the loose monetary policy assuring market participants that the inflation rise in the recent months should not be regarded as the uptrend beginning. The investors expected such comments so the pair started selling fast due to Ms. Yellen performance.

The GBP/USD was able to breakthrough the two-week range due to the June CPI index positive release. The June UK inflation showed growth to the level of 1.9% year on year, which triggered the "bulls rally" on the British currency. The inflationary pressures intensified the market participants' expectations on the earlier BoE monetary - credit policy tightening amid the pound significantly strengthened its position in relation to the dollar.

The BoJ head Mr. Kuroda speaking at a press-conference after a meeting on monetary - credit policy said he expected the economic growth return to the positive territory in the 3rd quarter. It was also indicated that the price current growth seemed to be well balanced and there is no reason for a strong dollar strengthening now. After Fed head statements completion we saw the increase in the U.S. 10 - year Treasuries yield, which also supported the moderate demand for the U.S. dollar.




Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General Overview

The euro/dollar remained under the pressure. The euro disorder was provoked by the ZEW disappointing data. The Euro sales were carried out amid the Fed reports. The brief euro buying against the dollar was observed when the retail sales release went significantly worse forecasted medians. In fact, the ZEW Report pointed to the Germany investor confidence drop in July for seventh consecutive month.

The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.3520 breakthrough the way to the support 1.3480 will be opened. Meanwhile we expect a consolidation and a short term bounce upwards.



Pound (GBP)

General Overview

Technically, the British returned to the market leaders and became one of the majors on the yesterday's session having made some profit against the dollar. The sterling found support from the newly arrived UK economic data. The economic statistics publication announced the UK inflation accelerating and added the belief to investors that the BoE would be forced to raise rates before the end of this year

The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.7160 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.7220.

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